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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 0 pts | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended | |
| OpenAI | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| xAI | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Meta | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Anthropic | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| DeepSeek | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Alibaba | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Company C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 411d |  Parz1vaI2 fills | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,805 | −$18 −0.6% | — | |
| 411d |  TealV | xAI | SellNo>99¢ | $6,266 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 411d | lowrisk2 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,798 | −$2 −0.1% | — | |
| 411d | TealV | SellYes>99¢ | $3,497 | −$4 −0.1% | — | |
| 411d |  SCHIZO-RELAY-PAYS-ME | SellYes>99¢ | $6,493 | −$6 −0.1% | — | |
| 412d | ChampaLiberation | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,817 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 412d | lowrisk242 fills | SellYes>99¢ | $4,366 | −$18 −0.4% | — | |
| 412d | nhpx38txna0500 | xAI | SellNo>99¢ | $8,982 | −$18 −0.2% | — |
| 413d | wojtekspekulant | xAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,556 | +$18 +0.1% | 4 |
| 413d | ameliars | xAI | SellNo>99¢ | $9,953 | −$46 −0.5% | — |
| 413d | david3891 | Anthropic | SellNo>99¢ | $6,494 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 413d | david3891 | xAI | SellNo>99¢ | $2,988 | −$12 −0.4% | — |
| 413d |  gopfan2 | xAI | SellNo>99¢ | $14,232 | −$61 −0.4% | — |
| 414d | wokerjoesleeper | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,202 | −$12 −1.0% | — | |
| 414d | slushierxd | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,083 | −$9 −0.8% | — | |
| 414d | slushierxd | BuyYes100¢ | $1,026 | +$5 +0.5% | 4 | |
| 414d | 546F746573204D63476F746573 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,898 | −$27 −1.4% | — | |
| 414d | singularity7 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,063 | +$17 +0.8% | 4 | |
| 414d |  Cookedtan27 fills | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $74,332 | +$101 +0.1% | 4 |
| 414d | Cookedtan10 fills | OpenAI | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $26,647 | +$5,902 +22% | 4 |
| 414d | Cookedtan27 fills | Anthropic | BuyNo>99¢ | $74,258 | +$175 +0.2% | 4 |
| 414d |  cluster111 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,538 | +$40 +0.7% | 4 | |
| 414d | Yomba | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,423 | +$11 +0.8% | 4 | |
| 415d |  Bitcoin2Moon | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,439 | +$39 +0.7% | 4 | |
| 415d | ameliars2 fills | xAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,960 | +$39 +0.4% | 4 |
| 415d | Bukaj08892 fills | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,000 | +$153 +2.2% | 4 | |
| 415d | david38912 fills | Anthropic | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,494 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 415d | david3891 | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,985 | +$15 +0.5% | 4 |
| 416d | symplexgod | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,459 | −$41 −2.8% | — | |
| 416d | quanterty4 fills | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $22,500 | +$345 +1.5% | 4 | |
| 416d | Cookedtan22 fills | xAI | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $59,019 | +$1,537 +2.6% | 4 |
| 417d |  Oompa-Loompa | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,153 | +$18 +1.5% | 4 |
| 417d |  lambda152 fills | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,013 | +$204 +4.1% | 4 | |
| 417d | CanadianGoose2 fills | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,500 | +$246 +5.5% | 4 | |
| 417d | guacamole | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | +$26 +2.6% | 4 | |
| 417d | guacamole | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,182 | +$13 +1.1% | 4 |
| 418d | godzilla2025 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,820 | −$67 −3.7% | — | |
| 418d |  0xdc3E831cad3 fills | OpenAI | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,608 | −$131 −2.3% | — |
| 418d |  Justitia2 fills | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,635 | +$110 +1.3% | 4 |
| 418d | cigarettes21 fills | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $38,217 | +$58 +0.2% | 4 |
| 418d | cigarettes22 fills | Anthropic | BuyNo>99¢ | $39,370 | +$143 +0.4% | 4 |
| 418d | cigarettes17 fills | xAI | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $30,294 | +$486 +1.6% | 4 |
| 418d | coco0406783 fills | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $9,586 | +$273 +2.8% | 4 | |
| 418d | aviato | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,580 | +$87 +1.3% | 4 |
| 418d | cigarettes7 fills | OpenAI | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $14,854 | +$1,618 +11% | 4 |
| 418d | cigarettes13 fills | Meta | BuyNo>99¢ | $26,220 | +$26 +0.1% | 4 |
| 418d | lowrisk242 fills | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,836 | +$104 +2.7% | 4 | |
| 418d | NeaGogo4 fills | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $25,476 | +$923 +3.6% | 4 | |
| 419d | trader1729 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,207 | −$41 −3.4% | — | |
| 420d | wokerjoesleeper | Meta | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,485 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 420d | wokerjoesleeper | DeepSeek | BuyNo100¢ | $1,479 | +$7 +0.5% | 4 |
| 420d | wokerjoesleeper | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,464 | +$22 +1.5% | 4 |
| 420d | wokerjoesleeper | OpenAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,464 | +$22 +1.5% | 4 |
| 420d | wokerjoesleeper | Anthropic | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,483 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 420d | nonkenny902 fills | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $4,856 | +$372 +7.7% | 4 | |
| 420d | Bitcoin2Moon2 fills | Meta | SellNo>99¢ | $7,967 | −$16 −0.2% | — |
| 420d | Bitcoin2Moon2 fills | Meta | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,975 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 421d | 546F746573204D63476F746573 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,867 | +$58 +3.1% | 4 | |
| 421d |  Minecraft | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,425 | −$75 −5.3% | — | |
| 421d | Bitcoin2Moon | Alibaba | SellNo>99¢ | $3,653 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
Montanastyl3s1,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Google means the market gives it about 100%.