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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| >$2T | 100% | +32 pts | +36 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 439d |
| >$3T | 0% | −4 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 439d |
| >$2.2T | 0% | −46 pts | −42 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 439d |
| >$1.8T | 100% | +17 pts | +22 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 439d |
| >$2.4T | 0% | −25 pts | −24 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 439d |
| >$2.6T | 0% | −14 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 439d |
| >$1T | 100% | +1 pts | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 439d |
| >$1.6T | 100% | +4 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 439d |
| >$4T | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 439d |
| >$2.8T | 0% | −9 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 439d |
| >$1.2T | 100% | +2 pts | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 439d |
| >$1.4T | 100% | +3 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 439d |
| >$3.2T | 0% | −4 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 439d |
| >$3.8T | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 439d |
| >$3.4T | 0% | −4 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 439d |
| >$3.6T | 0% | −3 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 439d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 126d | uyflrflfyul | >$2.8T | SellNo>99¢ | $1,090 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 126d |  HuntersMethDealer | >$2T | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 126d |  .chumpo | >$2.2T | SellNo>99¢ | $1,682 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | kingkin | >$1.6T | SellYes>99¢ | $1,096 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | suntori | >$2T | SellYes>99¢ | $11,818 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | suntori | >$1.4T | SellYes>99¢ | $6,715 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | neutralwave23 | >$1.8T | SellYes>99¢ | $3,680 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | 0x98c2…f85d | >$2T | SellYes>99¢ | $7,429 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | swisslion | >$1.6T | SellYes>99¢ | $1,075 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | pkazandzhiev | >$2T | SellYes>99¢ | $1,438 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | XZCapital | >$2T | SellYes>99¢ | $32,431 | −$32 −0.1% | — |
| 126d |  SayPokGai | >$2.2T | SellNo>99¢ | $1,016 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | Carcar0808 | >$2T | SellYes>99¢ | $3,730 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | leesnltwo | >$2.2T | SellNo>99¢ | $1,002 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 126d |  WordleAddict | >$2T | BuyYes>99¢ | $92,111 | +$92 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d |  OraculumNobius3 fills | >$2T | BuyYes>99¢ | $29,970 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | coali103 fills | >$2T | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $121,851 | +$1,484 +1.2% | 20 |
| 126d |  kinderSman4 fills | >$2.2T | BuyNo>99¢ | $74,925 | +$75 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | Trustinghorse3 fills | >$2.2T | BuyNo>99¢ | $39,751 | +$40 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d |  AheadoftheMob | >$1.6T | SellYes>99¢ | $5,473 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | AheadoftheMob | >$1.8T | SellYes>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | Trustinghorse | >$2T | BuyYes>99¢ | $39,960 | +$40 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d |  Archeroon | >$2T | SellYes>99¢ | $22,893 | −$51 −0.2% | — |
| 126d |  PlsDontCry | >$2T | SellYes>99¢ | $1,306 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 126d |  0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e052 fills | >$2.2T | BuyNo>99¢ | $41,810 | +$92 +0.2% | 20 |
| 126d |  yen4u | >$2.2T | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,228 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 126d | bnliu | >$1.6T | SellYes>99¢ | $10,333 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | 0x903221b1 | >$2T | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,884 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 126d | V1nch0u | >$1.8T | SellYes>99¢ | $3,666 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | apple-pi | >$2.2T | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,894 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 126d |  mingerr2 fills | >$2T | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,800 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d |  BeneGesseritVoice | >$2T | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | kukubaja | >$1.8T | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,844 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | Coordinated-Leather3 fills | >$1.8T | SellYes>99¢ | $21,787 | −$22 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | Liquidifier | >$2.2T | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,980 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 126d |  hxfxiaox | >$2.4T | SellNo>99¢ | $2,293 | −$9 −0.4% | — |
| 126d |  Gleaming-Pear | >$2T | BuyYes>99¢ | $39,960 | +$40 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | Dead-Skylightt | >$2T | BuyYes>99¢ | $39,960 | +$40 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | Liquidifier2 fills | >$2T | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $28,556 | +$752 +2.6% | 20 |
| 126d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | >$2T | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,839 | +$28 +0.3% | 20 |
| 126d | C03B2 fills | >$2.2T | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $16,079 | +$336 +2.1% | 20 |
| 126d | C03B2 fills | >$2T | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $37,519 | +$341 +0.9% | 20 |
| 126d | Coordinated-Leather | >$2T | SellYes>99¢ | $1,314 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 126d | RookieFund | >$2.2T | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,236 | +$14 +1.1% | 20 |
| 126d |  Tenebrus72 fills | >$1.8T | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $3,197 | −$310 −9.7% | — |
| 126d | coali10 | >$1.8T | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,982 | +$18 +0.2% | 20 |
| 126d | C03B2 fills | >$1.8T | BuyYes>99¢ | $68,259 | +$79 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | libaiye4 fills | >$2T | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $17,487 | +$1,649 +9.4% | 20 |
| 126d | apple-pi | >$2T | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,970 | +$30 +1.5% | 20 |
| 126d | C03B | >$1.6T | BuyYes>99¢ | $70,897 | +$71 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | Hauchn | >$2.2T | BuyYes5¢ → 0¢ | $1,018 | −$1,018 −100% | 20 |
| 126d |  Cointraders | >$2.6T | SellNo>99¢ | $1,507 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 126d | Sticky-Closing2 fills | >$2T | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,201 | +$384 +9.1% | 20 |
| 126d | Cointraders | >$2.8T | SellNo>99¢ | $2,460 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 126d | Cointraders | >$3T | SellNo>99¢ | $4,990 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 126d |  AllByMyseIf | >$1.4T | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,494 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | Cointraders | >$1.6T | SellYes>99¢ | $6,422 | −$13 −0.2% | — |
| 126d | coali105 fills | >$2.6T | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $32,116 | +$667 +2.1% | 20 |
| 126d | coali103 fills | >$2T | SellYes81¢ → 100¢ | $5,762 | −$1,381 −24% | — |
| 126d |  Iax | >$2.2T | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,054 | −$42 −3.9% | — |
AllByMyseIf23,802 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for >$2T means the market gives it about 100%.