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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260-279 | 100% | +56 pts | +93 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −1 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −12 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −25 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −23 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −31 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −11 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78d |  Elonurmom | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,520 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 78d |  LinaBell🦊 | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,370 | +$38 +0.7% | 20 |
| 78d | LinaBell🦊 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,993 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 78d | BinaryBaron7 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,193 | +$70 +0.3% | 20 |
| 78d | Radiant-Nonbeliever | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,799 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 78d |  Prexpect2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,692 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 78d |  dingdangcat | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,788 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 78d |  stauffen | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,304 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 78d | sazzaa2 fills | 260-279 | SellYes68¢ → 100¢ | $2,606 | −$1,251 −48% | — |
| 78d | kjjhvghv982 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,724 | +$107 +3.9% | 21 |
| 78d |  jesterthegoose | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,084 | +$10 +0.9% | 20 |
| 78d | jesterthegoose2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,554 | +$85 +0.9% | 20 |
| 78d | LinaBell🦊 | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,377 | +$19 +1.4% | 20 |
| 78d | Actual-Ladle | 280-299 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | +$51 +3.0% | 21 |
| 78d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $6,231 | +$553 +8.9% | 23 |
| 78d | Intelligent-Tax | 260-279 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,878 | +$99 +5.3% | 22 |
| 78d | carboyant | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,956 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 78d | Amir10001 | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,500 | +$32 +0.6% | 20 |
| 78d | stauffen | 280-299 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$210 +19% | 24 |
| 78d | d008 | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$14 +0.7% | 20 |
| 78d | anon.1980.1234 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,740 | +$121 +1.1% | 20 |
| 78d | 0x5dae…b1082 fills | 280-299 | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $3,447 | −$1,091 −32% | — |
| 78d | Marsache | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,163 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 78d |  PredictionYogi | 280-299 | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $2,008 | +$860 +43% | 28 |
| 78d | Actual-Ladle | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,699 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 78d | 0x1d94…80da | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,321 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 78d | 0xd6c7…21cb | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,250 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 78d | jesterthegoose2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $69,980 | +$90 +0.1% | 20 |
| 78d | sazzaa | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,551 | +$53 +0.7% | 20 |
| 78d | s777s | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$26 +1.3% | 20 |
| 78d | pupupuup | 240-259 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,315 | +$157 +6.8% | 22 |
| 78d | Marsache2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $4,100 | +$324 +7.9% | 22 |
| 78d | Actual-Ladle | 240-259 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,620 | +$81 +5.0% | 21 |
| 78d | Ecnanif | 240-259 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,069 | +$308 +15% | 23 |
| 78d | PredictionYogi | 260-279 | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $1,205 | +$652 +54% | 28 |
| 78d | beatyesterday4 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $27,082 | +$85 +0.3% | 20 |
| 78d | Amir100012 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $7,980 | +$445 +5.6% | 21 |
| 78d | kjjhvghv98 | 220-239 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,102 | −$21 −1.9% | — |
| 78d | Stiff-Photo | 220-239 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,231 | −$19 −1.6% | — |
| 79d | Adorable-Initial | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$144 +1.4% | 20 |
| 79d | kjjhvghv98 | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,053 | +$6 +0.6% | 20 |
| 79d | BinaryBaron | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,218 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 79d | BinaryBaron | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,822 | +$64 +0.4% | 20 |
| 79d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,620 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 79d | carboyant | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,444 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 79d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,447 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 79d | Jasonzz | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$10 +0.8% | 20 |
| 79d | onekey023 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,849 | +$24 +0.1% | 20 |
| 79d | dafei888 | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,298 | +$87 +2.0% | 20 |
| 79d | suifeng668 | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,022 | +$82 +2.0% | 20 |
| 79d | CakeBake | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,971 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 79d | CakeBake | 320-339 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,009 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 79d | 0x1d94…80da2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,932 | +$60 +2.0% | 20 |
| 79d | 0x5dae…b108 | 280-299 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $3,964 | +$761 +19% | 23 |
| 79d | 0x127e…3dd8 | 240-259 | SellYes28¢ → 0¢ | $2,090 | +$2,090 +100% | — |
| 79d | dafei888 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,925 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 79d | suifeng668 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,109 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 79d | ppobb1123 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,219 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 79d | suyizi | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,734 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 79d | LinabellAccountStolen | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,437 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
dz1ft2,400 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 24 12:00 PM ET to July 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 260-279 means the market gives it about 100%.