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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 1 | 100% | +54 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 31 | 0% | −36 pts | −39 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 30 | 100% | +7 pts | +14 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 2 | 100% | +40 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 9 | 100% | +18 pts | +29 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 15 | 100% | +12 pts | +22 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 4 | 100% | +23 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| October 31 | 100% | +4 pts | +6 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 14d |
| July 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 7 | 100% | +20 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 3 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45d |  rewardbots2 fills | September 1 | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,885 | −$504 −17% | — |
| 45d | MrBauer | September 1 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,011 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 45d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | September 2 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,571 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 45d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e22 fills | September 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $18,942 | +$37 +0.2% | 20 |
| 45d | Peaceful-Fire-Bell | September 4 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,516 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 45d | Peaceful-Fire-Bell | September 2 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,901 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 45d | Peaceful-Fire-Bell2 fills | September 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $21,509 | +$104 +0.5% | 20 |
| 45d |  Hakei.3 fills | September 1 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $25,792 | +$782 +3.0% | 21 |
| 45d |  BlackJellyfish | September 1 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,970 | +$30 +0.6% | 20 |
| 45d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | September 4 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 45d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | September 2 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,536 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 45d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | September 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 45d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e22 fills | September 3 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,476 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 45d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e22 fills | September 4 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,074 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 45d |  rando12345 | September 1 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $9,294 | +$387 +4.2% | 21 |
| 45d | 1hbh | September 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,498 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 45d | Peaceful-Fire-Bell | September 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,133 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 45d | Peaceful-Fire-Bell | September 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,128 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 45d | Peaceful-Fire-Bell | September 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,712 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 45d | manchot | September 1 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,257 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 45d | Peaceful-Fire-Bell | September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,310 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 45d |  Car | September 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,218 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 45d | Car | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,971 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 45d |  0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05 | September 1 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | +$20 +1.0% | 20 |
| 45d | anoin1233 fills | September 1 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $7,260 | +$231 +3.2% | 21 |
| 45d | anoin123 | September 4 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,275 | +$92 +1.1% | 20 |
| 45d |  ifyouloveme | September 4 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,615 | +$18 +1.1% | 20 |
| 45d |  Waterfall | September 1 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,390 | +$64 +1.9% | 20 |
| 45d |  Contentious-Dinnerdate | September 1 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,028 | +$201 +9.9% | 22 |
| 45d | Ikokoko | September 1 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,552 | +$68 +4.4% | 21 |
| 45d | 1hbh | September 1 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,606 | −$151 −9.4% | — |
| 45d |  The-Joker2 fills | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,742 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 45d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,198 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 45d |  kl1v | September 1 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,372 | +$212 +8.9% | 22 |
| 45d | The-Joker | September 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,450 | +$28 +1.1% | 20 |
| 45d | The-Joker2 fills | September 30 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,476 | +$258 +7.4% | 20 |
| 45d | The-Joker3 fills | September 9 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,739 | +$435 +9.2% | 20 |
| 45d |  balthazar | September 15 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,428 | +$22 +1.6% | 20 |
| 45d | Faelara1337 | September 1 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,255 | +$60 +4.8% | 21 |
| 45d | kl1v | September 2 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,542 | +$79 +5.1% | 21 |
| 45d | Hakei. | September 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,809 | +$37 +2.0% | 20 |
| 45d | Hakei. | September 15 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,359 | +$77 +2.3% | 20 |
| 45d | Contentious-Dinnerdate | September 15 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $5,405 | +$601 +11% | 20 |
| 45d | melonmanm | September 2 | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $1,758 | +$1,242 +71% | 25 |
| 45d | 0x67ba…fafe | September 1 | BuyYes38¢ → 100¢ | $1,259 | +$2,027 +161% | 29 |
| 45d |  tsklee | September 1 | BuyNo86¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 24 |
| 45d | maizi0601 | September 15 | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,015 | −$138 −14% | — |
| 46d | ifyouloveme | September 2 | BuyNo58¢ → 0¢ | $1,833 | −$1,833 −100% | 25 |
| 46d | thoodr | September 15 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,670 | +$330 +12% | 20 |
| 46d | thoodr | September 1 | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $2,339 | −$2,339 −100% | 27 |
| 46d | BrownBees | September 15 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,159 | −$173 −15% | — |
| 46d | BrownBees2 fills | September 30 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,730 | −$267 −9.8% | — |
| 46d | Stupendous-Puma | September 1 | SellNo58¢ → 0¢ | $1,058 | +$1,058 +100% | — |
| 46d |  36483934890472 fills | October 31 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $6,154 | +$266 +4.3% | 20 |
| 46d | rewardbots | September 2 | BuyNo42¢ → 0¢ | $1,050 | −$1,050 −100% | 25 |
| 46d | neproebi | September 1 | BuyNo63¢ → 0¢ | $3,400 | −$3,400 −100% | 28 |
| 46d |  mewmew1 | September 30 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $6,562 | +$494 +7.5% | 20 |
| 46d | maizi0601 | September 4 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,152 | +$324 +28% | 21 |
| 46d | halulula | September 1 | BuyNo63¢ → 0¢ | $1,178 | −$1,178 −100% | 28 |
| 46d | Serene-Broadcast2 fills | September 9 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $6,274 | +$2,692 +43% | 20 |
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for September 1 means the market gives it about 100%.
