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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 100% | +39 pts | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −20 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −17 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −4 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −1 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49d |  XsiroX | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,162 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 49d | Limping-Baggie-Technique | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,977 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 49d |  PredictionYogi | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,978 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 49d | venezuelain | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,798 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 49d | tianjiyuyunzhilu3 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,916 | +$21 +0.2% | 20 |
| 49d | lannnn | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,332 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 49d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,113 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 49d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,889 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 49d | Repulsive-Member | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,477 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 49d | niuniuhgir | 180-199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,741 | +$19 +1.1% | 20 |
| 49d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 180-199 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,103 | −$35 −0.9% | — |
| 49d | Odd-Deformation | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,376 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 49d | Varito29 | 180-199 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,338 | −$13 −1.0% | — |
| 49d | 0xc4ca…3df3 | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,062 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 49d | 0xc4ca…3df3 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,064 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 49d | Intelligent-Tax | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,306 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 49d | URAL17 | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 49d |  stauffen | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,078 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 49d | 0xumbra | 180-199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | +$7 +0.7% | 20 |
| 49d | Icannotwin | 180-199 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,996 | −$18 −0.9% | — |
| 49d |  meagainsttheworld | 160-179 | BuyYes37¢ → 0¢ | $1,076 | −$1,076 −100% | 30 |
| 49d | RootWoot | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,253 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 49d | beatyesterday | 200-219 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,088 | +$43 +2.0% | 21 |
| 50d |  67BrainRot2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,089 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 50d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$204 +8.2% | 23 |
| 50d | 67BrainRot | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,307 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 50d |  LinaBell🦊 | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,496 | +$15 +0.6% | 20 |
| 50d |  Mei-ji | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,311 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 50d | Jackybrown2 fills | 160-179 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,133 | −$188 −8.8% | — |
| 50d |  LeipzigG | 180-199 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,362 | −$339 −25% | — |
| 50d | Intelligent-Tax | 180-199 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,303 | +$397 +17% | 24 |
| 50d |  0xa8C4d45000b7976d897Ab79c21780E46faAA848 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,553 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 50d | 0xa8C4d45000b7976d897Ab79c21780E46faAA848 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,888 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 50d | ihrekunst | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,834 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 50d | Actual-Ladle | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,524 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 50d | 0xFd67277Fa638e39eaE6 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,497 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 50d | Mei-ji | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,196 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 50d | 0xFd67277Fa638e39eaE6 | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 50d | Mei-ji2 fills | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,196 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 50d | Varito29 | 180-199 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,178 | +$402 +34% | 27 |
| 50d | 0x2CA | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,750 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 50d | beatyesterday5 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,882 | +$113 +0.9% | 20 |
| 50d | Intelligent-Tax | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,991 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 50d | Repulsive-Member | 200-219 | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $2,727 | +$756 +28% | 26 |
| 50d | Actual-Ladle | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$30 +1.2% | 20 |
| 50d | nole-ksum | 160-179 | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,024 | −$193 −19% | — |
| 50d | dddtrips2 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $4,068 | +$633 +16% | 24 |
| 50d | Amir10001 | 220-239 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$244 +4.9% | 21 |
| 50d | venezuelain | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,048 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 50d | YuzuLemon | 200-219 | SellNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,334 | −$369 −28% | — |
| 51d | hijaxk | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,057 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 51d | hetacz2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,794 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 51d | RootWoot | 220-239 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$54 +4.5% | 21 |
| 51d | RootWoot | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,631 | −$7 −0.4% | — |
| 51d | CakeBake | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,293 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 51d | suifeng6682 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $4,988 | +$783 +16% | 22 |
| 51d | byteA | 160-179 | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,450 | +$396 +27% | 24 |
| 51d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,198 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 51d |  leleko2k | 240-259 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,269 | +$71 +2.2% | 20 |
| 51d | dafei888 | 160-179 | SellNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,131 | −$281 −25% | — |
dz1ft9,688 shares
Viberoni1,064 shares
1000Usdt557 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 21 12:00 PM ET to August 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 180-199 means the market gives it about 100%.