Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200-219 | 100% | +73 pts | +88 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −4 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −20 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −5 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −25 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −53 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −3 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84d | 0x7111…7c21 | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,151 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 85d | windyww | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,223 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 85d | Mommy007 | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,015 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 85d | BinaryBaron4 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,186 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 85d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,373 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 85d |  Prexpect | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,947 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 85d |  PredictionYogi4 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $11,324 | +$332 +2.9% | 21 |
| 85d |  Gustav4 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,058 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 85d | AnonymousPerson | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,042 | +$8 +0.8% | 20 |
| 85d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,209 | +$15 +1.2% | 20 |
| 85d | anon.1980.1235 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $14,372 | +$468 +3.3% | 21 |
| 85d | 0xaea825a7eaafa49b59b61af8f376923dc1e4ff | 200-219 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,558 | +$53 +3.4% | 21 |
| 85d | BinaryBaron3 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,058 | +$19 +0.2% | 20 |
| 85d | zzhzz | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,405 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 85d |  y111m11 | 200-219 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,542 | +$67 +4.4% | 21 |
| 85d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,406 | +$165 +4.8% | 22 |
| 85d | Amir10001 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,000 | +$34 +0.4% | 20 |
| 85d | zzhzz | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$10 +0.7% | 20 |
| 85d | YuzuLemon | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,277 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 85d | karen2p | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,310 | +$47 +2.1% | 21 |
| 85d |  jesterthegoose | 200-219 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,232 | +$186 +15% | 23 |
| 85d | ProsperIntelligence | 220-239 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,866 | −$317 −11% | — |
| 85d | Cejgu | 200-219 | SellYes63¢ → 100¢ | $1,280 | −$745 −58% | — |
| 85d | buputong | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,385 | +$16 +0.3% | 20 |
| 85d | suifeng668 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,905 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 85d | luca883 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,932 | +$18 +0.5% | 20 |
| 85d | zzhzz | 220-239 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,520 | −$63 −4.2% | — |
| 85d | zzhzz | 220-239 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,460 | +$123 +8.5% | 22 |
| 85d | carboyant | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,324 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 85d | Assured-Familiarity | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,850 | +$21 +0.8% | 20 |
| 85d | BinaryBaron | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,551 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 85d | tukki | 180-199 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$411 +10% | 22 |
| 85d | Actual-Ladle | 180-199 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$151 +14% | 23 |
| 85d | suifeng668 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,098 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 85d | suifeng668 | 240-259 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,165 | −$17 −1.5% | — |
| 85d | anon.1980.123 | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,401 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 85d | suifeng668 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,103 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 85d | buputong | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,207 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 85d | 0xB177dvgu7 | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,632 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 85d | Simmelariii | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,786 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 85d | carboyant | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,320 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 85d | NeoOracle | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,920 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 85d | lIllIlllIlIl | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 85d | anon.1980.123 | 160-179 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,353 | +$50 +2.1% | 21 |
| 85d | ProsperIntelligence | 200-219 | BuyNo82¢ → 0¢ | $1,653 | −$1,653 −100% | 25 |
| 85d | Intelligent-Tax | 160-179 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,530 | −$170 −11% | — |
| 85d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,516 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 85d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,447 | +$158 +6.5% | 22 |
| 85d | ppobb1123 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,689 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 86d | Jasonzz | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,197 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 86d | dafei888 | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,139 | +$72 +1.0% | 20 |
| 86d |  stauffen | 200-219 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 23 |
| 86d | CakeBake2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,461 | +$21 +0.2% | 20 |
| 86d | weatherprod | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,034 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 86d | weatherprod | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,424 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 86d | weatherprod | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,018 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 86d |  triple-purple | 200-219 | SellYes26¢ → 100¢ | $1,145 | −$3,313 −289% | — |
| 86d |  Mei-ji | 260-279 | SellNo100¢ | $1,589 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 86d | 0xFd67277Fa638e39eaE6 | 260-279 | SellNo100¢ | $1,034 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 86d | nbjui1 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,774 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
dz1ft20,335 shares
yueyueyn902 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 17 12:00 PM ET to July 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 200-219 means the market gives it about 100%.