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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +27 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91d |  stauffen | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,638 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 91d | windyww | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,371 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 91d |  Espagan | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,479 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 91d |  Kamenshyk22 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 91d |  Spotless-Godfather | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,378 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 91d | Limping-Baggie-Technique | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,090 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 91d | Cavernous-Undershirt | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,037 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 91d |  Prexpect | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,055 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 91d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,415 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 91d | BinaryBaron | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,645 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 91d | Cavernous-Undershirt | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,030 | +$9 +0.4% | 20 |
| 91d |  y111m11 | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,030 | +$14 +1.3% | 20 |
| 91d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,045 | +$17 +1.7% | 21 |
| 91d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $6,660 | +$243 +3.7% | 21 |
| 91d | carboyant | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,368 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 91d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,544 | +$203 +5.7% | 21 |
| 91d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,246 | +$171 +5.3% | 21 |
| 91d | carboyant | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,362 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 91d | BinaryBaron | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,962 | +$77 +0.7% | 20 |
| 91d | Repulsive-Hit | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,131 | +$160 +7.5% | 22 |
| 91d | Spotless-Godfather | 90-114 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,154 | −$16 −0.7% | — |
| 91d | Po1yBot-QI6GR4DKSp | 65-89 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,517 | +$97 +6.4% | 22 |
| 91d | Assured-Familiarity | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,694 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 91d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,045 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 91d |  Gustav4 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,849 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 91d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,035 | +$9 +0.9% | 20 |
| 91d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,356 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 91d | 0xFd67277Fa638e39eaE6 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,064 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 92d | Espagan | 65-89 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,220 | +$262 +8.1% | 22 |
| 92d | stauffen | 65-89 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,350 | +$292 +8.7% | 22 |
| 92d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,983 | +$21 +1.1% | 20 |
| 92d | BinaryBaron | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,573 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 92d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,748 | +$36 +0.2% | 20 |
| 92d | onekey02 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 94d |  BigMackyG | <40 | BuyNo69¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | +$455 +45% | 22 |
| 95d | Spotless-Godfather | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,928 | +$72 +3.7% | 20 |
BigMackyG3,778 shares
Davecx1,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 16 12:00 PM ET to July 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.