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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +76 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −61 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 107d | Randomcnobodykins | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,382 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 107d | udt123 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,852 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 107d |  LinaBell🦊 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,671 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 107d | 0B06 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,064 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 107d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 107d |  Gustav4 | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,874 | +$99 +2.0% | 21 |
| 107d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 40-64 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | +$34 +3.1% | 21 |
| 107d |  y111m11 | 65-89 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,089 | +$70 +6.4% | 22 |
| 107d | JustMeZ | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,125 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 107d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes54¢ → 100¢ | $3,931 | +$3,297 +84% | 28 |
| 108d | pingfan666 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 108d | splito | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,198 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 108d | EMbrace | 40-64 | SellNo65¢ → 0¢ | $1,094 | +$1,094 +100% | — |
| 108d |  AndreaPirlo | 40-64 | BuyNo69¢ → 0¢ | $2,713 | −$2,713 −100% | 30 |
| 108d | bipbipbop | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,205 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 108d | carboyant | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,357 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 108d | JustMeZ | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,726 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 108d | Odd-Deformation | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,958 | +$42 +0.5% | 20 |
| 108d | luca88 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,020 | +$13 +0.6% | 20 |
| 108d | Adorable-Initial2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,950 | +$172 +1.7% | 20 |
| 108d | JustMeZ | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,463 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 108d | Bananchik1999 | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | +$34 +3.2% | 21 |
| 108d | bipbipbop | 40-64 | BuyNo72¢ → 0¢ | $1,517 | −$1,517 −100% | 27 |
| 108d | Intelligent-Tax | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,045 | +$97 +3.2% | 21 |
| 108d | Likable-Attendance | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,183 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 108d | suifeng668 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,493 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 108d | nbjui1 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,500 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 108d | dafei888 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,700 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 108d | pingfan666 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 |
| 108d | buputong | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,883 | +$17 +0.4% | 20 |
| 108d | zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzczzzzzzzzzzzzzzz2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes64¢ → 0¢ | $2,168 | −$2,168 −100% | 25 |
| 108d | abinfafafa | 65-89 | BuyYes63¢ → 0¢ | $1,691 | −$1,691 −100% | 28 |
| 108d | splito | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 108d | BinaryBaron | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,224 | +$9 +0.4% | 20 |
| 109d |  LinabellAccountStolen | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,473 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 109d | win-win-win99 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,992 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 109d | luca88 | <40 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,578 | +$50 +3.2% | 21 |
| 109d |  DPjackman | 90-114 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,084 | +$163 +15% | 22 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 29 12:00 PM ET to July 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.