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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 100% | +40 pts | +85 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −2 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −10 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −25 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −3 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17d |  Elonurmom | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,617 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 17d | kakdelaa | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,706 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 17d | niceShare | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,409 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 17d | ElonSimp | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,858 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 17d |  LinaBell🦊 | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,394 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 17d |  PredictionYogi | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 17d |  Bot42 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,985 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 17d | ok26062 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,311 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 17d | LazyWanker | 200-219 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,948 | −$16 −0.8% | — |
| 18d |  Kurumi.chan2 fills | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,079 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 18d |  Sugarina | 180-199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,473 | +$12 +0.8% | 20 |
| 18d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,435 | +$25 +0.7% | 20 |
| 18d | xiao2222 | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,417 | +$13 +0.9% | 20 |
| 18d | DrunkenKraken | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,282 | +$18 +1.4% | 20 |
| 18d |  upont | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 18d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 200-219 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,197 | +$50 +4.2% | 21 |
| 18d | PredictionYogi | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,482 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 18d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,441 | −$12 −0.3% | — |
| 18d | Kurumi.chan | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,894 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 18d | carboyant | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,431 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 18d | upont6 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,371 | +$60 +0.2% | 20 |
| 18d |  funnybon | 180-199 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,089 | +$239 +22% | 25 |
| 18d | CakeBake | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 18d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,482 | +$19 +0.2% | 20 |
| 18d | upont | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,094 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 18d | upont3 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,987 | +$37 +0.2% | 20 |
| 18d | DrunkenKraken | 160-179 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,235 | +$36 +2.9% | 21 |
| 18d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,400 | +$53 +1.6% | 20 |
| 18d |  BigMackyG | 200-219 | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $2,023 | +$862 +43% | 28 |
| 18d | weatherprod | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,675 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 18d | weatherprod | 220-239 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,445 | +$127 +5.2% | 21 |
| 18d | weatherprod | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,099 | +$60 +0.9% | 20 |
| 18d | CakeBake | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 18d | BigMackyG | 160-179 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,230 | −$123 −10% | — |
| 19d | upont | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,992 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 19d |  stauffen | 200-219 | BuyNo66¢ → 100¢ | $1,442 | +$739 +51% | 25 |
| 19d | stauffen | 160-179 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,475 | −$130 −8.8% | — |
| 19d | RootWoot | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,473 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 19d | rw-mehtape | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,190 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 19d | bipbipbop | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,670 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 19d | carboyant2 fills | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,413 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 19d |  Mei-ji | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,188 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 19d | jinitaime | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,132 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 19d | icariam06 | 140-159 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,240 | −$34 −2.7% | — |
| 19d | zhenni | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 20d | CakeBake | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,595 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 20d | bipbipbop | 120-139 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,251 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 21d | momo513 | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 21d | stauffen | 160-179 | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,127 | +$477 +42% | 22 |
| 21d |  Boss7 | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,202 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 21d | Icannotwin | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 21d |  decacepa | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,046 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 22d | Mei-ji | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,499 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 22d | decacepa | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,739 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 22d | weatherprod2 fills | 120-139 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,667 | +$69 +2.6% | 20 |
| 23d | clggzz | 100-119 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,189 | +$11 +0.9% | 20 |
| 23d | bipbipbop | 300-319 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,317 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 24d | hulitest2025 | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,109 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 24d |  hirichzhou | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,768 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 25d | Elonurmom | 160-179 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,101 | +$194 +18% | 20 |
ElonJail200 shares
himken137 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 22 12:00 PM ET to September 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 180-199 means the market gives it about 100%.