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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160-179 | 100% | +69 pts | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −58 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −13 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −1 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66d | Poiuztrewq | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,699 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 66d | Actual-Ladle | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,103 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 66d | logesh32 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,160 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 67d | beatyesterday | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,594 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 67d | beatyesterday | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,250 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 67d | anon.1980.123 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,664 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 67d |  LinaBell🦊 | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,010 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 67d | pingfan666 | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,896 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 67d |  stauffen | 160-179 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,026 | −$11 −0.5% | — |
| 67d |  HowToBasic | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 67d | nbjui1 | 160-179 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,308 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 67d | nbjui1 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,399 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 67d | pingfan666 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,009 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 67d | Actual-Ladle | 180-199 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$105 +5.3% | 22 |
| 67d |  y111m11 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,581 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 67d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,721 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 67d | Marsache | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,281 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 67d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $4,101 | +$425 +10% | 23 |
| 67d | BinaryBaron4 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,125 | +$24 +0.1% | 20 |
| 67d | AnonymousPerson | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,497 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 67d | Repulsive-Member | 160-179 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$150 +15% | 24 |
| 67d |  dingdangcat | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,054 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 67d | pingfan666 | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,657 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 67d | nbjui12 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,802 | +$42 +1.5% | 20 |
| 67d | pingfan666 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,994 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 67d | Po1yBot-QI6GR4DKSp | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 67d |  Spotless-Godfather | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,993 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 67d | BinaryBaron | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,257 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 67d | y111m11 | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,564 | +$19 +1.2% | 20 |
| 67d | Safff | 160-179 | SellYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,210 | −$516 −43% | — |
| 67d | Amir10001 | 180-199 | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,527 | +$476 +31% | 26 |
| 67d | WCWS | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 67d | 0xB177dvgu7 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,085 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 67d |  PredictionYogi | 200-219 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,368 | +$28 +2.0% | 21 |
| 67d | Marsache | 160-179 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $1,810 | +$795 +44% | 28 |
| 67d | Marsache3 fills | 180-199 | SellYes33¢ → 0¢ | $3,215 | +$3,215 +100% | — |
| 67d | onekey02 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,472 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 67d | Bigggggggg | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,130 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 67d | Bigggggggg | 200-219 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,086 | +$48 +2.3% | 21 |
| 67d | Safff | 160-179 | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $1,550 | +$1,078 +70% | 28 |
| 67d | Bigggggggg | 180-199 | BuyNo60¢ → 100¢ | $1,280 | +$854 +67% | 28 |
| 67d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,009 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 67d | pingfan666 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,108 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 67d | nbjui12 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,932 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 67d | AnonymousPerson | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 67d | suifeng668 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,366 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 67d | dafei8882 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,139 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 67d | anon.1980.123 | 200-219 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,774 | +$120 +4.3% | 21 |
| 67d | xiaojido202 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,604 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 67d | venezuelain | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 67d | stauffen | 160-179 | BuyYes51¢ → 100¢ | $1,036 | +$1,001 +97% | 28 |
| 67d | stauffen | 200-219 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,055 | −$95 −9.0% | — |
| 67d | suyizi2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,154 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 67d | stauffen | 200-219 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,070 | +$81 +7.5% | 22 |
| 67d | onekey02 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,830 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 67d | carboyant | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,253 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 67d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$15 +0.8% | 20 |
| 67d | anon.1980.123 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $14,326 | −$37 −0.3% | — |
| 67d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $5,220 | +$780 +15% | 23 |
| 67d | 0xB177dvgu7 | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | +$12 +1.1% | 20 |
dz1ft61,665 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 4 12:00 PM ET to August 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 160-179 means the market gives it about 100%.