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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200-219 | 100% | +45 pts | +80 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −2 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −30 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −11 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | d008 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,707 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 21d | phanish | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,035 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 21d | Actual-Ladle2 fills | 220-239 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $6,620 | −$345 −5.2% | — |
| 21d | Kayakingzzz | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,646 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 21d |  hirichzhou | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,035 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 21d |  ithinkthisisloser | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,037 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 21d | hulitest2025 | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,286 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 21d | RootWoot | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,989 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 21d |  abellll | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,245 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 21d | 0xB177dvgu7 | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,113 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 21d |  PredictionYogi | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,539 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 21d | Jackybrown | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,624 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 21d | YuzuLemon | 200-219 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,433 | +$113 +3.3% | 21 |
| 21d | Jackybrown | 180-199 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,350 | +$279 +6.4% | 22 |
| 21d | karen2p | 180-199 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,656 | +$63 +3.8% | 21 |
| 21d | Actual-Ladle2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,890 | +$75 +1.1% | 20 |
| 21d | froku | 200-219 | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,116 | −$151 −14% | — |
| 21d | Actual-Ladle | 180-199 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,319 | −$288 −8.7% | — |
| 21d | 0xd951…7bab | 180-199 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,111 | −$234 −11% | — |
| 21d | dudukos | 180-199 | BuyYes11¢ → 0¢ | $2,314 | −$2,314 −100% | 36 |
| 22d | Kkirito | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,468 | +$33 +1.3% | 20 |
| 22d |  upont | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,067 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 22d | tianjiyuyunzhilu3 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,265 | +$161 +4.9% | 22 |
| 22d | sazzaa | 180-199 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $7,576 | +$706 +9.3% | 23 |
| 22d | CakeBake | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,253 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 22d | Marsache2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,100 | +$214 +6.9% | 21 |
| 22d |  0xPoni-Elon | 180-199 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,086 | −$71 −6.5% | — |
| 22d | hetacz3 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,886 | +$114 +1.7% | 20 |
| 22d | 50ShadesofGrey3 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $27,686 | +$28 +0.1% | 20 |
| 22d | Kayakingzzz | 220-239 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$47 +3.0% | 21 |
| 22d |  Apatta.hl | 180-199 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,240 | +$42 +3.4% | 21 |
| 22d | Sarths | 180-199 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$144 +7.3% | 22 |
| 22d | Actual-Ladle | 180-199 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,340 | +$267 +8.0% | 22 |
| 22d | DrunkenKraken | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,030 | +$15 +1.5% | 20 |
| 22d | 5551ab | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,107 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 22d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,246 | +$210 +4.0% | 21 |
| 22d | rw-mehtape | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,555 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 22d | CakeBake | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,708 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 22d | Topman1031 | 200-219 | SellYes50¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | −$1,001 −100% | — |
| 22d | Bigggggggg | 220-239 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,205 | +$61 +5.0% | 21 |
| 22d | Bigggggggg | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,262 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 22d | Laoxiong2 fills | 180-199 | SellNo61¢ → 100¢ | $4,036 | −$2,555 −63% | — |
| 22d | Bigggggggg | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,265 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 22d | Actual-Ladle | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,640 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 22d |  funnybon | 220-239 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,551 | +$135 +8.7% | 22 |
| 22d | DrunkenKraken | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,015 | +$12 +1.2% | 20 |
| 22d | onekey02 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,879 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 22d |  leleko2k | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,718 | +$23 +1.3% | 20 |
| 22d | RootWoot | 220-239 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$326 +22% | 25 |
| 22d | RootWoot | 240-259 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,225 | −$32 −2.6% | — |
| 22d | weatherprod2 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,715 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 22d | carboyant | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,835 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 22d | carboyant | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,835 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 22d | rw-mehtape2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,797 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 |
| 22d | thisissocool11 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,794 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 22d | bipbipbop | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,369 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 23d |  Boss7 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,038 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 23d |  BigMaccyG | 220-239 | BuyYes22¢ → 0¢ | $1,304 | −$1,304 −100% | 26 |
| 23d | Laoxiong | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,508 | −$9 −0.3% | — |
| 23d | CakeBake | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,704 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
BigMaccyG5,589 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 18 12:00 PM ET to September 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 200-219 means the market gives it about 100%.