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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240-259 | 100% | +46 pts | +84 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −3 pts | −25 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −34 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −47 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −40 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −7 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −2 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 108d |  Elonurmom | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,264 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 108d | Papuasus | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,244 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 108d | Adorable-Initial | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,020 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 108d | niceShare | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,574 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 108d |  AndreaPirlo | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,798 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 108d | Poiuztrewq | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,881 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 108d | udt123 | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,932 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 108d |  hedgebo | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,038 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 108d | Exciting-Hat-Vegetarian | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,168 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 108d | Robin897654 | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,332 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 108d |  Green.Gold | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,782 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 108d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $4,666 | +$448 +9.6% | 23 |
| 108d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,363 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 108d | Intelligent-Tax6 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $9,031 | +$1,144 +13% | 24 |
| 108d | Intelligent-Tax | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $17,696 | −$18 −0.1% | — |
| 108d | JustMeZ | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,139 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 108d |  upont4 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,808 | +$29 +0.1% | 20 |
| 109d | ShaunLee | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,724 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 109d | Degenerate-Dude | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,574 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 109d | nole-ksum | 280-299 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,326 | −$9 −0.7% | — |
| 109d | zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzczzzzzzzzzzzzzzz | 240-259 | SellNo60¢ → 0¢ | $1,117 | +$1,117 +100% | — |
| 109d | LLLivesky | 240-259 | BuyNo73¢ → 0¢ | $1,164 | −$1,164 −100% | 29 |
| 109d | yolol3 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,790 | +$97 +0.9% | 20 |
| 109d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,224 | +$15 +0.5% | 20 |
| 109d | splito | 240-259 | SellNo38¢ → 0¢ | $2,382 | +$2,382 +100% | — |
| 109d | ppobb1123 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,377 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 109d | upont | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,032 | +$40 +0.2% | 20 |
| 109d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $15,196 | +$841 +5.5% | 21 |
| 109d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,805 | +$149 +3.9% | 21 |
| 109d | dafei888 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,692 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 109d | nbjui1 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,883 | +$18 +0.4% | 20 |
| 109d | pingfan666 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,377 | +$24 +0.4% | 20 |
| 109d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,092 | +$218 +4.3% | 21 |
| 109d | carboyant | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,893 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 109d | onekey02 | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,510 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 109d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,370 | +$18 +0.8% | 20 |
| 109d | CakeBake | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,488 | +$40 +1.2% | 20 |
| 109d | Adorable-Initial2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$112 +1.1% | 20 |
| 109d | mza55 | 280-299 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,260 | +$88 +7.0% | 22 |
| 109d | LLLivesky | 220-239 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,185 | −$108 −9.1% | — |
| 109d | BinaryBaron | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,055 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 109d | Paulig | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,763 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 109d | NeoOracle | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,678 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 109d | Separate-Beast | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,991 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 109d | YogiKimochi | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,335 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 109d | LLLivesky | 220-239 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,098 | +$195 +18% | 23 |
| 109d |  Annica2 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,115 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 109d | carboyant | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,875 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 110d | lankeleads | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,095 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 110d | bipbipbop | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,706 | +$33 +1.2% | 20 |
| 110d | Paulig | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,538 | +$17 +1.1% | 20 |
| 110d | bipbipbop | 300-319 | SellNo100¢ | $1,105 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 110d |  Memorinas | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 110d | win-win-win992 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,991 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 110d |  axelverse.sol | 300-319 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,089 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 110d | Annica2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,142 | +$73 +0.8% | 20 |
| 110d | bipbipbop | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,891 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 110d | anon.1980.123 | 260-279 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,257 | +$41 +3.2% | 21 |
| 110d | anon.1980.123 | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,846 | +$45 +2.5% | 20 |
| 110d | Henshel | 180-199 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,627 | −$168 −10% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 23 12:00 PM ET to June 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 240-259 means the market gives it about 100%.