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Polymarket · Culture
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 5% | +1 pts | +2 pts | 5¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | $363K | in 75d |
| October 31 | 1% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $86.1K | in 14d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41m | DOGwar | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ | $3,000 | −$2 −0.1% | 4 |
| 1h | BunCaCham2 fills | December 31 | SellNo95¢ | $5,095 | +$12 +0.2% | — |
| 1h |  elmcap212 fills | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $167,863 | −$645 −0.4% | 7 |
| 2h | hgtgyu6rfgbfgy5rtddfh | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ | $1,110 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 3h | Bruce0913 | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ | $2,035 | +$5 +0.3% | 4 |
| 5h | SILIMAN | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ | $4,040 | −$2 −0.1% | 4 |
| 5h | JamesBonder0072 fills | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ | $9,315 | +$33 +0.4% | 4 |
| 6h | BeeYou | December 31 | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,132 | −$10 −0.9% | — |
| 6h | yeslabby3 fills | December 31 | BuyYes5¢ | $12,894 | +$72 +0.6% | 26 |
| 22h | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ | $69,953 | +$35 +0.1% | 4 |
| 1d | Major-Chopsticks | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $1,100 | −$9 −0.8% | 4 |
| 1d | 18in36out | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $2,992 | −$23 −0.8% | 4 |
| 1d | gorovi6 fills | December 31 | SellNo96¢ → 95¢ | $20,255 | +$274 +1.4% | — |
| 1d | joebmx3 fills | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $12,950 | −$116 −0.9% | 4 |
| 1d |  bigdihhh888 | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $1,778 | −$18 −1.0% | 4 |
| 1d | joebmx | October 31 | SellNo99¢ | $10,952 | −$17 −0.2% | — |
| 1d | Trump2028 | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ | $14,419 | +$22 +0.2% | 4 |
| 2d | hfv2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $9,102 | −$35 −0.4% | 4 |
| 2d | Zoomertrash | October 31 | SellNo99¢ | $1,202 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 2d | Corrupt-Lark | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $1,285 | −$6 −0.5% | 4 |
| 2d | Kippekok | December 31 | SellNo95¢ | $1,090 | +$2 +0.2% | — |
| 2d |  largeleeks888 | October 31 | SellNo99¢ | $3,752 | −$16 −0.4% | — |
| 3d | Unimportant-Locket | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ | $1,010 | −$3 −0.3% | 4 |
| 3d | juy99 | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ | $3,100 | −$5 −0.2% | 4 |
| 3d | Bet1nthedark | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $18,000 | −$122 −0.7% | 5 |
| 3d | Bet1nthedark | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ | $1,500 | +$4 +0.3% | 4 |
| 3d | elmcap22 fills | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ | $103,041 | +$368 +0.4% | 5 |
| 4d |  FelicityBright | December 31 | SellNo95¢ | $1,028 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 4d | Kippekok | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $1,100 | −$12 −1.1% | 4 |
| 4d |  Hyperlong | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ | $6,775 | +$25 +0.4% | 4 |
| 4d |  wish- | December 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,886 | +$17 +0.9% | 4 |
| 4d | Serene-Decision | December 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $2,478 | +$25 +1.0% | 4 |
| 4d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389352 fills | December 31 | SellNo95¢ | $34,650 | −$116 −0.3% | — |
| 4d | Fond-Millennium | December 31 | BuyYes5¢ | $2,510 | −$243 −9.7% | 12 |
| 4d | minisobaby | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $4,000 | −$15 −0.4% | 4 |
| 4d | TexasOx7 fills | December 31 | BuyYes4¢ → 5¢ | $11,987 | +$3,908 +33% | 26 |
| 4d | gfhnjyt865 | December 31 | SellNo96¢ → 95¢ | $1,091 | +$12 +1.1% | — |
| 4d | Servantetech | December 31 | SellNo96¢ → 95¢ | $1,687 | +$21 +1.2% | — |
| 5d | Bolteer | December 31 | SellNo97¢ → 95¢ | $1,986 | +$28 +1.4% | — |
| 5d | TexasOx | October 31 | BuyYes2¢ → 1¢ | $1,313 | −$809 −62% | 7 |
| 5d | delphy | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ | $3,000 | +$14 +0.5% | 4 |
| 6d | gfhnjyt865 | December 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 95¢ | $1,100 | −$21 −1.9% | 4 |
| 6d | bvcnbhre | December 31 | SellNo97¢ → 95¢ | $3,996 | +$72 +1.8% | — |
| 7d | coconutsteaksauce | December 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 95¢ | $2,910 | −$55 −1.9% | 4 |
| 7d | bvcnbhre | December 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 95¢ | $4,000 | −$76 −1.9% | 4 |
| 8d |  ChadLiteplus | December 31 | SellYes3¢ → 5¢ | $1,316 | −$964 −73% | — |
| 8d | 572849102 fills | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ | $15,018 | +$60 +0.4% | 4 |
| 8d | Krejza682 fills | October 31 | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $5,806 | −$14 −0.2% | 4 |
| 8d | Bolteer | December 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 95¢ | $2,000 | −$42 −2.1% | 4 |
| 9d | ladida33 | December 31 | SellNo97¢ → 95¢ | $1,997 | +$40 +2.0% | — |
| 10d | iamgood898 | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ | $1,984 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 10d | vhgf76jhvhvg | December 31 | SellNo97¢ → 95¢ | $1,299 | +$25 +1.9% | — |
| 10d | vhgf76jhvhvg | December 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 95¢ | $1,300 | −$26 −2.0% | 4 |
| 10d | ImGettingOnTheShips | December 31 | SellYes3¢ → 5¢ | $3,187 | −$2,031 −64% | — |
| 10d | largeleeks888 | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ | $9,925 | +$25 +0.3% | 4 |
| 10d | 0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49 | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ | $29,021 | +$103 +0.4% | 5 |
| 10d | fbet | December 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 95¢ | $4,787 | −$86 −1.8% | 4 |
| 11d | TheGGDream2 fills | December 31 | SellNo96¢ → 95¢ | $12,616 | +$111 +0.9% | — |
| 11d | Avamax2 fills | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ | $59,831 | +$318 +0.5% | 5 |
| 11d | 8469 | October 31 | BuyNo99¢ | $6,007 | +$33 +0.6% | 4 |
elmcap2387,288 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 5¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 5%.