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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd hottest | 100% | +2 pts | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 1st hottest | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 3rd hottest | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 4th or lower | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 129d |  Hot-Skull | 2nd hottest | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 152d | russell110320 | 2nd hottest | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $2,634 | +$897 +34% | 4 |
| 152d | i18z | 4th or lower | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,086 | +$11 +1.0% | 4 |
| 152d | i18z | 3rd hottest | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | +$57 +5.5% | 4 |
| 156d | 3874110074156118140922178973876 fills | 4th or lower | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $17,610 | +$1,293 +7.3% | 4 |
| 156d | russell1103202 fills | 3rd hottest | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,765 | +$273 +9.9% | 4 |
| 157d | handofmiddas | 3rd hottest | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $5,284 | −$529 −10% | — |
| 162d | 3874110074156118140922178973873 fills | 3rd hottest | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $6,709 | +$718 +11% | 4 |
| 163d | handofmiddas | 3rd hottest | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,665 | +$319 +8.7% | 4 |
| 163d | handofmiddas | 4th or lower | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $9,400 | +$537 +5.7% | 4 |
| 163d | russell1103202 fills | 4th or lower | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $4,465 | +$665 +15% | 4 |
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 2nd hottest means the market gives it about 100%.