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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20M | 100% | 0 pts | +19 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 440d |
| $200M | 0% | −61 pts | −37 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 440d |
| $50M | 100% | +1 pts | +28 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 440d |
| $100M | 100% | 0 pts | +43 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 440d |
| $300M | 0% | −27 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 440d |
| $500M | 0% | −4 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 440d |
| $1B | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 440d |
| $800M | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 440d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57d |  C6H6 | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,186 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 57d |  leleko2k | $200M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,199 | +$12 +1.0% | 2 |
| 57d |  Kharekk | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 58d |  SOLinvestigator | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,320 | +$10 +0.3% | 2 |
| 58d | Podpow57 | $20M | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,467 | −$34 −2.3% | — |
| 59d | olekpreff | $20M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,306 | +$41 +1.2% | 2 |
| 59d | apiwat | $20M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,487 | +$20 +1.4% | 2 |
| 136d | 1881aa | $100M | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,215 | +$232 +19% | 2 |
Berkah-Karya44 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Aligned's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Aligned will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Aligned (https://x.com/alignedlayer) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $20M means the market gives it about 100%.