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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100% | +3 pts | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| September 30 | 100% | +4 pts | +5 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77d |  Contentious-Dinnerdate | September 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | +$55 +4.7% | 4 |
| 78d | Contentious-Dinnerdate | December 31 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,708 | +$190 +11% | 4 |
TRUTH500 shares
AMAM13434 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” At market issuance, Epoch AI lists “A Ramsey-style Problem on Hypergraphs” and “The 2-adic Absolute Galois Group” as solved. Additional solutions for these problems will not qualify. This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved. The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 100%.