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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | 100% | +16 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% | −60 pts | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Game Spread +/-4.5 | 0% | −47 pts | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Completed Match | 100% | +51 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Set 1 Winner | 100% | +23 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Set 2 Winner | 0% | −75 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Match O/U 21.5 | 100% | +54 pts | — | 98¢ · >99¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Match O/U 22.5 | 100% | +48 pts | — | 81¢ · 100¢ (19¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Match O/U 23.5 | 100% | +51 pts | — | 81¢ · 100¢ (19¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% | +73 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% | +69 pts | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% | +21 pts | — | 84¢ · 100¢ (16¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% | +41 pts | — | 84¢ · 100¢ (16¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% | +50 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% | +50 pts | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% | −50 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16d | Admired-Packet | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $1,784 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 16d | Worrisome-Winery | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $2,517 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 16d |  isco22 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $7,926 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 16d | neverin | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $1,096 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 16d | thanhtam86 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $1,479 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 16d |  1x2xx2556xx123 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $4,077 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 16d | Unfortunate-Liver | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $6,494 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 16d | VanGenGrom | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $1,339 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 16d | piagopilva | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $7,477 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 16d | UpTheBlues6 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz98¢ → 100¢ | $8,848 | +$206 +2.3% | 4 |
| 16d | Flaznorp3 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz98¢ → 100¢ | $8,746 | +$149 +1.7% | 4 |
| 16d | Momo632 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz95¢ → 100¢ | $13,373 | +$704 +5.3% | 4 |
| 16d | pagliacci4 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz94¢ → 100¢ | $1,872 | +$128 +6.8% | 4 |
| 16d | redvinny2 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz92¢ → 100¢ | $3,070 | +$263 +8.6% | 5 |
| 16d | Kkunn2 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | SellAlex Michelsen18¢ → 0¢ | $6,324 | +$6,324 +100% | — |
| 16d | Eddd1x | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz88¢ → 100¢ | $1,539 | +$216 +14% | 5 |
| 16d | neutralwave23 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | SellCarlos Alcaraz75¢ → 100¢ | $1,524 | −$499 −33% | — |
| 16d | sbsigner | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyAlex Michelsen23¢ → 0¢ | $1,099 | −$1,099 −100% | 6 |
| 16d | jtwyslljy | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyAlex Michelsen23¢ → 0¢ | $2,280 | −$2,280 −100% | 6 |
| 16d | phonesculptor3 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | SellCarlos Alcaraz97¢ → 100¢ | $8,644 | −$300 −3.5% | — |
| 16d | swy01 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | SellCarlos Alcaraz91¢ → 100¢ | $1,504 | −$149 −9.9% | — |
| 16d | Clawbangers | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz84¢ → 100¢ | $1,305 | +$248 +19% | 5 |
| 16d | jyben13 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | SellCarlos Alcaraz92¢ → 100¢ | $1,380 | −$120 −8.7% | — |
| 16d | Ss1984 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz91¢ → 100¢ | $3,640 | +$360 +9.9% | 5 |
| 16d | phonesculptor | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz91¢ → 100¢ | $7,069 | +$699 +9.9% | 5 |
| 16d | PeterSagan2 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyAlex Michelsen26¢ → 0¢ | $3,593 | −$3,593 −100% | 6 |
| 16d | 0xa0f2…18485 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz85¢ → 100¢ | $7,838 | +$1,367 +17% | 5 |
| 16d | 1x2xx2556xx123 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz64¢ → 100¢ | $2,575 | +$1,448 +56% | 6 |
| 16d | isco22 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz72¢ → 100¢ | $5,712 | +$2,221 +39% | 6 |
| 16d | neutralwave23 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz74¢ → 100¢ | $2,622 | +$922 +35% | 6 |
| 16d | Unfortunate-Liver | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz60¢ → 100¢ | $3,900 | +$2,600 +67% | 6 |
| 16d | jyben13 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | SellAlex Michelsen31¢ → 0¢ | $1,357 | +$1,357 +100% | — |
| 16d | madkkee | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz81¢ → 100¢ | $6,316 | +$1,481 +23% | 5 |
| 16d | hurrican | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz81¢ → 100¢ | $5,450 | +$1,278 +23% | 5 |
| 16d | Kkunn3 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyAlex Michelsen17¢ → 0¢ | $11,862 | −$11,862 −100% | 6 |
| 16d | Mad-Wound | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz84¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$476 +19% | 5 |
| 16d | HomeRunHazard | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz84¢ → 100¢ | $3,572 | +$680 +19% | 5 |
| 16d | Admired-Packet | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz84¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$286 +19% | 5 |
| 16d | Polyplayer14 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz84¢ → 100¢ | $2,100 | +$400 +19% | 5 |
| 16d | Caonima1 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz84¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | +$324 +19% | 5 |
| 16d | beeemw | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz86¢ → 100¢ | $21,070 | +$3,430 +16% | 5 |
| 16d | Cuco84 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz86¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$326 +16% | 5 |
| 16d | VanGenGrom | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz86¢ → 100¢ | $1,153 | +$188 +16% | 5 |
| 16d | Exalted-Evocation | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz85¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$529 +18% | 5 |
| 16d | thanhtam86 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz84¢ → 100¢ | $1,215 | +$231 +19% | 5 |
| 16d |  XDownloadtrump | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz84¢ → 100¢ | $5,040 | +$960 +19% | 5 |
| 16d | saltibiscoti | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz84¢ → 100¢ | $1,306 | +$249 +19% | 5 |
| 16d |  coinlaundry | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz84¢ → 100¢ | $21,000 | +$4,000 +19% | 5 |
| 16d | Worrisome-Winery | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz84¢ → 100¢ | $2,116 | +$403 +19% | 5 |
| 16d | 0F62 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | BuyCarlos Alcaraz83¢ → 100¢ | $34,337 | +$7,033 +20% | 5 |
| 16d | 0xf8fb…c3ca | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Set Handicap +/-1.5 | BuyCarlos Alcaraz63¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 6 |
Socialista2,200 sharesThis market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Alex Michelsen in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Alex Michelsen. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen means the market gives it about 100%.