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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Game Spread +/-5.5 | 50% | — | — | 43¢ · 50¢ (7¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set 2 Winner | 50% | — | — | 49¢ · 51¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set 1 Winner | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Completed Match | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% | — | — | 30¢ · 80¢ (50¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Match O/U 22.5 | 50% | — | — | — · 100¢ | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Match O/U 21.5 | 50% | — | — | — · 100¢ | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% | — | — | — · 100¢ | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Match O/U 23.5 | 50% | — | — | — · 100¢ | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% | — | — | 49¢ · 51¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% | — | — | 49¢ · 51¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% | — | — | 49¢ · 51¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d | jtwyslljy | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $4,415 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 13d | 01258787xy48487484545122 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $19,533 | −$20 −0.1% | — |
| 13d | lhetorar | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $3,998 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 13d | Immense-Sitar | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $2,886 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 13d |  KSS-Zz | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $1,233 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 13d | Caonima1 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $1,685 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 13d | Dare01 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Set 1 Winner | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $1,498 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 13d | phredmoz | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | SellCarlos Alcaraz>99¢ | $4,083 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 13d | neutralwave23 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | SellCarlos Alcaraz96¢ → 100¢ | $1,330 | −$55 −4.1% | — |
| 13d | 1Day100USD | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | SellCarlos Alcaraz96¢ → 100¢ | $1,674 | −$70 −4.2% | — |
| 13d | kdvlklkvlsklkfs | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyDenis Shapovalov4¢ → 0¢ | $2,033 | −$2,033 −100% | 6 |
| 13d |  tradecraft | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz98¢ → 100¢ | $3,920 | +$80 +2.0% | 4 |
| 13d | HVAB | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz96¢ → 100¢ | $8,122 | +$338 +4.2% | 4 |
| 13d | Frigid-Gas7 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | SellCarlos Alcaraz91¢ → 100¢ | $51,943 | −$5,274 −10% | — |
| 13d | Flaznorp2 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz86¢ → 100¢ | $3,462 | +$581 +17% | 5 |
| 13d | User.0xE | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | SellCarlos Alcaraz92¢ → 100¢ | $5,519 | −$480 −8.7% | — |
| 13d | Ilgato | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz93¢ → 100¢ | $6,061 | +$462 +7.6% | 4 |
| 13d | phredmoz | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz86¢ → 100¢ | $3,524 | +$563 +16% | 5 |
| 13d | User.0xE | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz76¢ → 100¢ | $1,520 | +$480 +32% | 6 |
| 13d | SHSVHVD3 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | SellCarlos Alcaraz91¢ → 100¢ | $1,638 | −$162 −9.9% | — |
| 13d | lhetorar2 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz83¢ → 100¢ | $3,305 | +$697 +21% | 5 |
| 13d | W.Yang911 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | SellCarlos Alcaraz74¢ → 100¢ | $1,480 | −$520 −35% | — |
| 13d | Immense-Sitar | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz72¢ → 100¢ | $1,749 | +$673 +38% | 6 |
| 13d | Tedious-Purchase2 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz78¢ → 100¢ | $3,117 | +$901 +29% | 5 |
| 13d | itb08081982 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyDenis Shapovalov23¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 6 |
| 13d | hurrican | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz79¢ → 100¢ | $8,000 | +$2,189 +27% | 5 |
| 13d | 1Day100USD | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz75¢ → 100¢ | $1,133 | +$383 +34% | 6 |
| 13d | eokho | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyDenis Shapovalov40¢ → 0¢ | $1,626 | −$1,626 −100% | 6 |
| 13d | 0xa3ae…aca3 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyDenis Shapovalov40¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 6 |
| 13d | Caonima1 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz83¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$287 +20% | 5 |
| 13d | SHSVHVD3 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz69¢ → 100¢ | $1,173 | +$527 +45% | 6 |
| 13d | Kkunn | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyDenis Shapovalov33¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 6 |
| 13d | jtwyslljy | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz65¢ → 100¢ | $2,872 | +$1,547 +54% | 6 |
| 13d | Exalted-Evocation2 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz87¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$1,520 +15% | 5 |
| 13d | UpTheBlues3 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyDenis Shapovalov16¢ → 0¢ | $4,255 | −$4,255 −100% | 6 |
| 13d | Frigid-Gas7 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz87¢ → 100¢ | $47,965 | +$7,198 +15% | 4 |
| 13d |  coinlaundry | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz84¢ → 100¢ | $10,080 | +$1,920 +19% | 5 |
| 13d | 0F622 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz90¢ → 100¢ | $9,739 | +$1,082 +11% | 5 |
| 13d | shaw | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz88¢ → 100¢ | $5,280 | +$720 +14% | 4 |
| 13d | ferrariChampions20262 fills | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz87¢ → 100¢ | $18,956 | +$2,827 +15% | 4 |
| 13d | SplendidAmadeus | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz87¢ → 100¢ | $4,301 | +$643 +15% | 4 |
| 13d |  Filthy-Pantologist | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz87¢ → 100¢ | $1,522 | +$227 +15% | 4 |
| 13d | pacopaquitopaco | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz87¢ → 100¢ | $1,541 | +$230 +15% | 4 |
| 13d | Scornful-Gym-Retreat | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Game Spread +/-5.5 | BuyDenis Shapovalov56¢ → 50¢ | $3,400 | −$374 −11% | 4 |
| 13d | ferrariChampions2026 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyDenis Shapovalov14¢ → 0¢ | $2,843 | −$2,843 −100% | 4 |
| 13d | neutralwave23 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | BuyCarlos Alcaraz88¢ → 100¢ | $1,180 | +$162 +14% | 4 |
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Denis Shapovalov in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 12:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Denis Shapovalov. This market will resolve to 'Denis Shapovalov' if Denis Shapovalov advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov means the market gives it about 100%.