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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $150M | 100% | +6 pts | +25 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| $500M | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $800M | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $1B | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $1.5B | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $2B | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $300M | 0% | −3 pts | −38 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 246d |  0xjames | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,081 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 246d | rovad | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $7,858 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 246d |  scout3 fills | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,224 | +$21 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | defimillionroad | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,188 | +$4 +0.3% | 2 |
| 246d | btacc | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,429 | +$5 +0.4% | 2 |
| 246d | 0xjames | $300M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,039 | +$44 +2.2% | 2 |
| 246d | 1881aa | $300M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,060 | +$42 +2.0% | 2 |
| 246d | scout3 fills | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,067 | +$52 +0.2% | 2 |
| 246d |  OraculumNobius | $150M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,460 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 246d |  zeroprobability | $150M | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,000 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d |  Zaratustra2 fills | $150M | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $6,250 | +$511 +8.2% | 2 |
| 246d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$10 +0.2% | 2 |
| 246d | umtc4m | $500M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,015 | +$23 +1.2% | 2 |
| 246d | Stingy-Gingerbread | $500M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,447 | −$84 −1.3% | — |
| 246d |  Zhangmuzhiholy | $800M | SellNo>99¢ | $3,000 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 246d |  OnePercentClub | $300M | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,018 | −$107 −11% | — |
| 246d |  slvpr | $300M | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,460 | −$150 −10% | — |
| 246d | slvpr | $300M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,590 | +$20 +1.3% | 2 |
| 246d | haitang | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,811 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | Pansiew | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,022 | +$7 +0.3% | 2 |
| 246d | Beneber | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,251 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d | BigBossBowser | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,555 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 246d |  AcctToBeRetired2 fills | $500M | SellNo>99¢ | $3,261 | −$15 −0.5% | — |
| 246d | ricepudding | $150M | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,429 | −$37 −2.6% | — |
| 246d | XZCapital | $150M | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,797 | +$92 +1.6% | 2 |
| 247d |  alanhutton | $300M | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,404 | −$34 −2.4% | — |
| 247d | 1881aa | $150M | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,837 | +$77 +4.2% | 2 |
| 247d | x3x | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,300 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 247d | gamblito | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$8 +0.3% | 2 |
| 247d | bean125 | $2B | SellNo>99¢ | $5,005 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 247d | zeroprobability | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,000 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 247d | 1881aa | $150M | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,055 | −$254 −12% | — |
| 247d | OnePercentClub | $300M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,093 | +$23 +2.1% | 2 |
| 247d | zeroprobability | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 247d | Irondo | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,996 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 247d | cnerwuiva | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,202 | +$5 +0.4% | 2 |
| 247d | CryptoRandi | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$5 +0.4% | 2 |
| 247d | cnerwuiva3 fills | $800M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,220 | +$31 +0.6% | 2 |
| 247d | CryptoRandi3 fills | $800M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,402 | +$34 +0.8% | 2 |
| 247d | cnerwuiva | $800M | SellNo>99¢ | $3,826 | −$12 −0.3% | — |
| 247d | cnerwuiva2 fills | $2B | SellNo>99¢ | $6,267 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 247d | cnerwuiva | $1.5B | SellNo>99¢ | $7,351 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 247d | onekey09 | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,124 | +$8 +0.2% | 2 |
| 247d | awesomek | $300M | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,627 | +$235 +6.5% | 2 |
| 247d | rovad3 fills | $300M | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,300 | +$222 +6.7% | 2 |
| 247d | jbr | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,341 | +$4 +0.3% | 2 |
| 247d | onekey09 | $1.5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,687 | +$9 +0.1% | 2 |
| 247d | lontou | $150M | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,087 | +$69 +6.4% | 2 |
| 247d | jimmyhasballs3 fills | $500M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,000 | +$81 +0.7% | 2 |
| 247d | agrarward | $2B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,698 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 247d | kunsect7 | $300M | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,349 | −$121 −9.0% | — |
| 247d | greenrooibos | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,251 | +$22 +0.3% | 2 |
| 247d | jimmyhasballs | $300M | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$83 +4.2% | 2 |
| 247d | sweetswee | $1.5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,018 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 247d |  inrvoice | $500M | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,190 | −$23 −1.9% | — |
| 247d |  0xLucky17 | $500M | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,224 | −$22 −1.8% | — |
| 247d | Leopold- | $300M | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,344 | −$163 −12% | — |
| 247d | rusgreat | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,249 | +$13 +0.3% | 2 |
| 247d | 0x15ce9A512F0d4475ABb6DbA71ae702E2Dc1703 | $150M | SellYes69¢ → 100¢ | $1,168 | −$533 −46% | — |
| 247d | rusgreat | $800M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,788 | +$11 +0.6% | 2 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Aztec's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Aztec (https://aztec.network/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $150M means the market gives it about 100%.