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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodri | 100% | +87 pts | 0 pts | 100¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Vinicius Jr | 0% | −86 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jude Bellingham | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Dani Carvajal | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Lamine Yamal | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Lionel Messi | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Nico Williams | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Toni Kroos | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Kylian Mbappe | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harry Kane | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Phil Foden | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Erling Haaland | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 718d | justinjoy | Vinicius Jr | SellNo>99¢ | $1,159 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 718d |  willis1111 | Vinicius Jr | SellNo>99¢ | $1,879 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 718d | willis1111 | Rodri | SellYes>99¢ | $1,226 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 719d |  16Raad | Vinicius Jr | SellNo>99¢ | $1,326 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 719d | w0wie15 | Vinicius Jr | SellNo>99¢ | $4,142 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 719d | 090x | Rodri | SellYes>99¢ | $1,635 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 719d | shutim | Rodri | SellYes>99¢ | $5,330 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 719d | Xargos | Vinicius Jr | SellNo>99¢ | $1,308 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 719d |  MettaWorldPeace00 | Rodri | SellYes>99¢ | $3,361 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 719d | TenChuSama | Vinicius Jr | SellNo>99¢ | $3,702 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 719d | Doudoudep | Rodri | SellYes>99¢ | $1,138 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 719d | Gimmaer | Vinicius Jr | SellNo>99¢ | $9,411 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 719d | elPolloLoco | Rodri | SellYes>99¢ | $5,272 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 719d | Gimmaer | Vinicius Jr | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,393 | +$27 +0.3% | 4 |
| 719d |  itsgg18 fills | Vinicius Jr | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $92,031 | +$5,794 +6.3% | 4 |
| 719d | Doudoudep | Rodri | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,082 | +$57 +5.3% | 4 |
| 719d | TenChuSama | Vinicius Jr | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | +$65 +6.4% | 4 |
| 719d | Merases1 | Erling Haaland | SellNo>99¢ | $4,979 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 719d | itsgg11 fills | Rodri | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $37,544 | +$2,965 +7.9% | 4 |
| 719d | Gundi | Rodri | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,041 | +$141 +4.6% | 4 |
| 719d |  NERA | Vinicius Jr | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,252 | −$69 −5.5% | — |
| 719d | Ordon | Rodri | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,880 | −$120 −4.2% | — |
| 719d | AZwater | Rodri | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,440 | +$60 +4.2% | 4 |
| 719d | wokerjoesleeper3 fills | Vinicius Jr | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,115 | +$188 +4.6% | 4 |
| 719d | LFC82 fills | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,670 | +$11 +0.2% | 4 |
| 719d | almost-never | Rodri | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,828 | +$172 +4.5% | 4 |
| 719d | Gimmaer | Lamine Yamal | SellNo>99¢ | $2,038 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 719d | Gimmaer5 fills | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo>99¢ | $49,268 | +$93 +0.2% | 4 |
| 719d | SantaCatarina2 fills | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,607 | +$13 +0.1% | 4 |
| 719d | gogagoga | Vinicius Jr | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,247 | +$136 +11% | 4 |
| 719d | Ordon2 fills | Rodri | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $5,783 | +$396 +6.8% | 4 |
| 719d |  kingsirpredictionconnoisseur | Rodri | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,397 | +$118 +8.5% | 4 |
| 719d | justinjoy | Vinicius Jr | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | +$87 +8.1% | 4 |
| 719d | itsgg2 fills | Rodri | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,559 | −$332 −13% | — |
| 719d | malaga | Erling Haaland | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,868 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 719d | Faizkh | Vinicius Jr | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $7,747 | −$664 −8.6% | — |
| 719d | Rude-Pants | Dani Carvajal | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,251 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 719d | Majneklej3 fills | Erling Haaland | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,338 | +$31 +0.2% | 4 |
| 719d | AJfu | Rodri | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,613 | −$112 −7.0% | — |
| 719d | Monster93 | Vinicius Jr | SellYes5¢ → 0¢ | $1,517 | +$1,517 +100% | — |
| 719d | Xargos | Vinicius Jr | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,193 | +$117 +9.8% | 4 |
| 719d | tracingwoodgrains | Vinicius Jr | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$529 +13% | 4 |
| 719d | elPolloLoco | Rodri | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | +$113 +11% | 4 |
| 719d |  Anjun | Vinicius Jr | SellYes16¢ → 0¢ | $1,061 | +$1,061 +100% | — |
| 719d | Anjun | Rodri | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,264 | +$259 +20% | 4 |
| 719d | almost-never | Vinicius Jr | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,671 | +$296 +18% | 4 |
| 719d | NERA | Vinicius Jr | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,355 | +$258 +19% | 4 |
| 719d |  donjo3 fills | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo>99¢ | $40,408 | +$44 +0.1% | 4 |
| 719d | oboz | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,594 | +$10 +0.1% | 4 |
| 719d | oboz | Jude Bellingham | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,060 | +$13 +0.1% | 4 |
| 719d | Judge7777 | Other | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,991 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 719d | donjo | Dani Carvajal | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,777 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 719d | Anjun | Vinicius Jr | BuyYes11¢ → 0¢ | $1,358 | −$1,358 −100% | 4 |
| 719d |  MotherTeresa | Vinicius Jr | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,607 | −$436 −12% | — |
| 719d | Gimmaer3 fills | Erling Haaland | BuyNo>99¢ | $50,838 | +$94 +0.2% | 4 |
| 719d | habibi2.02 fills | Lamine Yamal | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,995 | +$38 +0.3% | 4 |
| 719d | habibi2.0 | Other | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,220 | +$12 +0.1% | 4 |
| 719d |  Irboz-sama | Rodri | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$92 +8.4% | 4 |
| 719d | RaphH3 fills | Vinicius Jr | SellYes36¢ → 0¢ | $6,951 | +$6,951 +100% | — |
| 719d |  Oil-Baron | Rodri | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,392 | +$131 +9.4% | 4 |
Ballon d'Or Winner
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Rodri means the market gives it about 100%.