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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41–44% | 100% | +4 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| <32% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 32–35% | 0% | −4 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 35–38% | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 38–41% | 0% | −4 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 44–47% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 47%+ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 523d | Hulhy | 32–35% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,356 | +$3 +0.2% | 10 |
| 523d | Minores5 | 32–35% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,385 | +$3 +0.2% | 10 |
| 523d | transformer4 | 32–35% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$3 +0.2% | 10 |
| 539d | Jandrix | 38–41% | SellNo59¢ → 100¢ | $17,822 | −$12,385 −69% | — |
| 541d | Jandrix | 38–41% | BuyNo60¢ → 100¢ | $18,128 | +$12,085 +67% | 10 |
The 2025 Canadian federal election will be held on April 28 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. This market will resolve to according to the popular vote share won by the Conservative Party If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based off the official vote count published by the Government of Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 41–44% means the market gives it about 100%.