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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 747d |  Gerdano | Crimean bridge hit before October? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,058 | −$36 −3.4% | — |
| 749d | SlavaUkraini | Crimean bridge hit before October? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,672 | +$39 +2.3% | 4 |
| 754d | Nonstop-Disclosure | Crimean bridge hit before October? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,856 | +$251 +6.5% | 4 |
| 759d |  just.some.guy2 fills | Crimean bridge hit before October? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,343 | +$357 +15% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Crimean Bridge (Kerch Bridge) is the subject of a kinetic strike between August 27 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Missile/drone strikes which are shot down or don't hit the bridge will not be considered for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.