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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25-1.29 | 100% | +8 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <1.20 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1.20-1.24 | 0% | −7 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1.30-1.34 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| >1.34 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 645d | yhld | 1.25-1.29 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,163 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 645d | Impure-Venom | 1.25-1.29 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,994 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 645d |  Vespuccii | 1.25-1.29 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,391 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 645d | Vespuccii | 1.20-1.24 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,644 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 645d | wokerjoesleeper | <1.20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,167 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 645d | wokerjoesleeper | >1.34 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,167 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 645d |  lranon | 1.25-1.29 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,238 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 645d |  aenews26 fills | 1.30-1.34 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $105,543 | +$635 +0.6% | 4 |
| 645d | aenews23 fills | 1.25-1.29 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $6,321 | +$1,334 +21% | 4 |
| 646d |  CPU2 fills | 1.25-1.29 | SellYes72¢ → 100¢ | $3,273 | −$1,287 −39% | — |
| 646d | aenews22 fills | >1.34 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,447 | +$17 +0.2% | 4 |
| 646d | Nowhere-Man2 fills | >1.34 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,011 | +$12 +0.4% | 4 |
| 647d | ImHereForTheRewards | >1.34 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,491 | −$9 −0.6% | — |
| 648d | Gallo2 fills | 1.25-1.29 | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $4,012 | −$1,088 −27% | — |
| 648d | junkbonds2 fills | >1.34 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,857 | +$12 +0.1% | 4 |
| 648d | junkbonds2 fills | 1.30-1.34 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,729 | +$21 +0.2% | 4 |
| 648d | junkbonds2 fills | <1.20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,822 | +$46 +0.4% | 4 |
| 648d | junkbonds2 fills | 1.20-1.24 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $10,148 | +$1,084 +11% | 4 |
| 648d | junkbonds | 1.25-1.29 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $7,232 | +$894 +12% | 4 |
| 648d | wokerjoesleeper | >1.34 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,358 | −$8 −0.6% | — |
| 648d | wokerjoesleeper | <1.20 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,890 | −$20 −0.7% | — |
| 648d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | <1.20 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,055 | −$53 −0.8% | — |
| 649d |  gopfan2 | 1.25-1.29 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $5,165 | +$1,722 +33% | 4 |
| 649d |  uncleroger | 1.25-1.29 | SellYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,533 | −$641 −42% | — |
| 649d | uncleroger | 1.20-1.24 | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,016 | −$322 −32% | — |
| 649d | uncleroger2 fills | 1.25-1.29 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $7,035 | +$3,111 +44% | 4 |
| 650d | Vespuccii | 1.20-1.24 | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,627 | +$433 +27% | 4 |
| 650d |  EdgyUsername | 1.20-1.24 | BuyYes65¢ → 0¢ | $1,354 | −$1,354 −100% | 4 |
| 650d |  risk-manager2 fills | 1.20-1.24 | BuyYes69¢ → 0¢ | $2,730 | −$2,730 −100% | 4 |
| 650d | CPU2 fills | 1.20-1.24 | SellYes44¢ → 0¢ | $3,261 | +$3,261 +100% | — |
| 650d | gopfan22 fills | 1.20-1.24 | SellYes75¢ → 0¢ | $4,846 | +$4,846 +100% | — |
| 650d | Vespuccii2 fills | 1.20-1.24 | BuyYes75¢ → 0¢ | $4,970 | −$4,970 −100% | 4 |
| 650d | Lowyrok | 1.20-1.24 | SellYes79¢ → 0¢ | $1,687 | +$1,687 +100% | — |
| 651d | CPU | 1.30-1.34 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,832 | +$31 +0.8% | 4 |
| 651d |  456ythgbvcadscvb | <1.20 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,359 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 651d | Vespuccii | <1.20 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,976 | −$24 −0.4% | — |
| 652d | pantomime | 1.30-1.34 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,172 | +$28 +2.4% | 4 |
| 652d | Vespuccii | <1.20 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,871 | +$129 +2.2% | 4 |
| 652d | Gallo | 1.25-1.29 | SellNo55¢ → 0¢ | $1,138 | +$1,138 +100% | — |
| 653d | Oxf240RS2016 | 1.25-1.29 | SellNo65¢ → 0¢ | $1,067 | +$1,067 +100% | — |
| 653d |  tjrick | 1.30-1.34 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,884 | +$100 +2.0% | 4 |
| 653d | Gallo2 fills | 1.20-1.24 | SellYes40¢ → 0¢ | $4,051 | +$4,051 +100% | — |
| 653d | Kapii | 1.20-1.24 | BuyNo54¢ → 100¢ | $1,599 | +$1,367 +86% | 4 |
| 654d | Gallo | 1.25-1.29 | BuyYes56¢ → 100¢ | $2,346 | +$1,854 +79% | 4 |
| 654d | ExhaustedBoyBilly | 1.30-1.34 | BuyYes10¢ → 0¢ | $1,354 | −$1,354 −100% | 6 |
| 655d | aenews2 | 1.20-1.24 | BuyYes39¢ → 0¢ | $1,365 | −$1,365 −100% | 5 |
| 656d |  0x203b348f5u28dx623l231m2335 | 1.20-1.24 | BuyYes35¢ → 0¢ | $1,126 | −$1,126 −100% | 12 |
| 658d | 0x203b348f5u28dx623l231m2335 | 1.25-1.29 | SellYes56¢ → 100¢ | $1,275 | −$1,001 −79% | — |
| 659d | gopfan2 | 1.20-1.24 | BuyYes32¢ → 0¢ | $1,269 | −$1,269 −100% | 7 |
| 665d | rjh | >1.34 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,856 | −$186 −4.8% | — |
| 665d | rjh | >1.34 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,721 | +$121 +2.6% | 4 |
| 665d | weaverfrida3 fills | >1.34 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $14,973 | +$352 +2.4% | 4 |
| 665d | FIERY-3953 fills | >1.34 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $15,002 | +$353 +2.4% | 4 |
| 666d | brinaawe-inspiring | >1.34 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,201 | +$99 +2.4% | 4 |
| 668d | gopfan2 | 1.30-1.34 | SellYes43¢ → 0¢ | $1,051 | +$1,051 +100% | — |
| 668d | gopfan22 fills | 1.20-1.24 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $6,358 | +$1,142 +18% | 4 |
| 670d | gopfan2 | 1.25-1.29 | SellYes48¢ → 100¢ | $1,290 | −$1,382 −107% | — |
| 675d | gopfan2 | <1.20 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,111 | −$110 −9.9% | — |
| 675d | Impure-Venom | >1.34 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,093 | +$151 +14% | 4 |
| 679d | gopfan2 | <1.20 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $5,270 | +$586 +11% | 4 |
This is a market group over the temperature increase the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for December 2024.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 1.25-1.29 means the market gives it about 100%.