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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| On or prior to April 24 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 25 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 26 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 27 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 28 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 29 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 30 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 1 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 2 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 3 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 4 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 5 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 6 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 7 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 8 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 9 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 10 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 11 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 12 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 13 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 14 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 15 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Not released by May 15 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 176d | Awkward-Bride | On or prior to April 24 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,799 | +$49 +1.0% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public. Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count. The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3. Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify. To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for On or prior to April 24 means the market gives it about 100%.