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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200-219 | 100% | +44 pts | +94 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −9 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −29 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −7 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −1 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 175d |  yarofxxk | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,857 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | airdro | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,388 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | niceShare | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,697 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | Beck00 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,090 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | 1647171 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,502 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | UKIIDQJ | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,249 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 175d |  hidden-james | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,001 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 175d |  Elonurmom | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,088 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | What-Exchange-Builder-04 | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,003 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | Second-Hand-Mark | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,080 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | Gentle-East | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,239 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | Icannotwin | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,500 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | dodca | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | IVNBRENESS1111 | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,071 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | Poiuztrewq | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 175d |  Senpaidroz | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,008 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 175d |  Annica5 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $74,375 | +$1,656 +2.2% | 21 |
| 175d | googoodluclucluckluckluckluck | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,191 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | EEGI | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,001 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 175d | 6862584 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,504 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | Dswang | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $12,566 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | distroaa | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,100 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | Rickz88 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,262 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | geraldhew89 | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,100 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 175d | onekey09 | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,598 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 175d | dudukos | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,792 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | Muzamilhussain | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,795 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 175d |  jesterthegoose4 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $22,684 | +$32 +0.1% | 20 |
| 175d | Able-DigNew account | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,826 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 175d |  yangleduoduo | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,432 | −$10 −0.4% | — |
| 175d |  520111 | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,071 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 175d |  ElonSpam | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,271 | +$19 +0.2% | 20 |
| 175d |  Gustav4 | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,841 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 175d |  upont2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,105 | +$71 +1.7% | 20 |
| 175d |  PumpThePompey | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,685 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 175d | Annica | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,580 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 175d |  Prexpect | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $20,337 | +$27 +0.1% | 20 |
| 175d | startrader3 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $9,269 | +$1,861 +20% | 24 |
| 175d |  AlmostRich | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,640 | +$107 +1.9% | 21 |
| 175d | jesterthegoose | 200-219 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $5,663 | +$524 +9.3% | 23 |
| 175d | pupupuup | 180-199 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,987 | +$132 +4.4% | 21 |
| 175d |  Meow12 | 200-219 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $4,713 | +$1,049 +22% | 26 |
| 175d | sazzaa | 180-199 | SellYes28¢ → 0¢ | $1,054 | +$1,054 +100% | — |
| 175d | Fine-Column | 180-199 | SellYes66¢ → 0¢ | $1,307 | +$1,307 +100% | — |
| 175d | iamcj2025 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,246 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 175d | Wary-Tragedy | 180-199 | BuyYes93¢ → 0¢ | $2,306 | −$2,306 −100% | 23 |
| 175d | Wary-Tragedy | 200-219 | BuyNo90¢ → 0¢ | $3,559 | −$3,559 −100% | 24 |
| 175d | Dense-Muscat | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,026 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | Wary-Tragedy2 fills | 220-239 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,925 | −$57 −1.2% | — |
| 175d |  tupac84 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes64¢ → 0¢ | $9,451 | −$9,451 −100% | 30 |
| 175d | d008 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,042 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 175d | satoshi2009a | 180-199 | BuyYes86¢ → 0¢ | $1,085 | −$1,085 −100% | 25 |
| 175d | Essential-Macaroon | 180-199 | BuyYes85¢ → 0¢ | $1,142 | −$1,142 −100% | 28 |
| 175d | upont | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,026 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 175d |  PredictionYogi | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $22,976 | +$23 +0.1% | 20 |
| 175d | Outrageous-Butter | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,299 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 175d | WCWS | 180-199 | BuyYes82¢ → 0¢ | $1,964 | −$1,964 −100% | 26 |
| 175d | megapimpf | 180-199 | SellYes74¢ → 0¢ | $1,583 | +$1,583 +100% | — |
| 175d | nomalmaker2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,091 | +$9 +0.4% | 20 |
| 175d | onekey09 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,050 | +$27 +0.3% | 20 |
cryptoZZo114 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 17 12:00 PM ET to April 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 200-219 means the market gives it about 100%.