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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +24 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −15 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 178d |  FatFrumos | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,873 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | Dense-Muscat | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,070 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | Jason2025 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,282 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 178d |  Annica2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,061 | +$72 +1.2% | 20 |
| 178d | onekey092 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $51,542 | +$289 +0.6% | 20 |
| 178d | BinaryBaron3 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,882 | +$81 +0.9% | 20 |
| 178d | Sirius109 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,610 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 178d | BinaryBaron5 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $20,064 | +$478 +2.4% | 21 |
| 178d | carboyant | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,867 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 178d | xiao2222 | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,782 | +$40 +1.1% | 20 |
| 178d | Educated-Parser | 40-64 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,135 | −$23 −2.0% | — |
| 178d | WCWS | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,956 | +$40 +2.0% | 21 |
| 178d | carboyant | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,869 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | Outrageous-Butter | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,216 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | 1647171 | 65-89 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,029 | +$247 +6.1% | 22 |
| 178d | birchallbets | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,120 | +$243 +7.8% | 22 |
| 178d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,139 | +$113 +9.9% | 23 |
| 178d |  Sugarina | 40-64 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,097 | +$194 +18% | 25 |
| 178d | Medical-Universe | 65-89 | SellYes13¢ → 0¢ | $1,340 | +$1,340 +100% | — |
| 178d | xiao2222 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | onekey09 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $23,967 | +$24 +0.1% | 20 |
| 178d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,989 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 178d |  Boss77 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,631 | +$76 +0.4% | 20 |
| 178d |  tupac82 fills | 65-89 | SellYes25¢ → 0¢ | $2,345 | +$2,345 +100% | — |
| 178d | onekey09 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $35,822 | +$36 +0.1% | 20 |
| 178d |  upont | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$9 +0.7% | 20 |
| 178d | yolol | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,783 | +$11 +0.6% | 20 |
| 178d | Coinupup | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,196 | +$31 +0.6% | 20 |
| 178d | nomalmaker | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,734 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 178d | WCWS | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,458 | +$38 +0.9% | 20 |
| 178d | xFEUx | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,503 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 178d | hoiiew | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,003 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 178d | fgdgf | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 178d |  kboss | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,399 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 178d | Yanncll | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,564 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | Annica | 65-89 | SellYes42¢ → 0¢ | $1,071 | +$1,071 +100% | — |
| 178d | AlexPro2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes52¢ → 100¢ | $2,630 | +$2,466 +94% | 28 |
| 178d | Educated-Parser | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,123 | +$33 +2.9% | 21 |
| 178d | Joethebirria125 | 65-89 | SellNo47¢ → 100¢ | $1,329 | −$1,484 −112% | — |
| 178d | 1647171 | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,052 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 178d |  Mei-ji2 fills | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,354 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | Dswang | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,583 | +$25 +1.6% | 20 |
| 178d | Bankrupt-Loser | 65-89 | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,037 | +$329 +32% | 26 |
| 178d | startrader | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $10,419 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | superhyper | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,157 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | googoodluclucluckluckluckluck | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,025 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | ddolsw123r | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 178d |  AlmostRich | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,207 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | 1111 | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,592 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 178d | Annica8 fills | <40 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $43,966 | +$1,179 +2.7% | 20 |
| 178d | Ashurnasirpal | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,585 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 178d | Mei-ji | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,993 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 178d |  Prexpect | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $32,919 | +$74 +0.2% | 20 |
| 178d | pupupuup | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,660 | +$29 +1.1% | 20 |
| 178d | AlmostRich | <40 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,991 | +$89 +1.8% | 20 |
| 178d |  Meow122 fills | <40 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,922 | +$307 +5.2% | 21 |
| 178d | startrader | <40 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $9,628 | +$338 +3.5% | 21 |
| 178d | FieryPhoenix | <40 | SellNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,615 | −$351 −22% | — |
| 178d | Vincent44230 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,059 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 178d | Medical-Universe | <40 | SellYes22¢ → 0¢ | $1,794 | +$1,794 +100% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 20 12:00 PM ET to April 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.