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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 140-159 | 100% | +49 pts | +98 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −17 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −3 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −43 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −6 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −1 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | 0 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 164d | OstapP | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,146 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 164d | anon.1980.123 | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,190 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 164d | GJLCS | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 164d | What-Exchange-Builder-04 | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,010 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 164d | byteA | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,045 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 164d | Dd8Aa6940ef0b95B2ae32981dFA0ff7caF8dedf9 | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,581 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 164d | TomSargent | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,876 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 164d | LazyWanker2 fills | 140-159 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,249 | −$219 −5.2% | — |
| 164d | Dense-Muscat | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,224 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 164d |  hidden-james | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,008 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 164d | TomSargent | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $25,657 | −$26 −0.1% | — |
| 164d |  MuskWillMakeMeRich | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,312 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 164d | onekey02 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,564 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 164d |  MINGGE520 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,005 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 164d |  Prexpect4 fills | 140-159 | BuyYes>99¢ | $30,188 | +$64 +0.2% | 20 |
| 164d | birchallbets2 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,609 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 164d | geraldhew89 | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 164d | geraldhew89 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,026 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 164d | dudukos3 fills | 140-159 | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $4,582 | −$3,004 −66% | — |
| 164d | lankeleads | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,922 | +$40 +1.0% | 20 |
| 164d | MuskWillMakeMeRich | 140-159 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 164d | Intelligent-Tax5 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $11,397 | +$534 +4.7% | 21 |
| 164d | xaeroqkAtProtonMe4 fills | 160-179 | SellNo80¢ → 100¢ | $6,440 | −$1,629 −25% | — |
| 164d | xaeroqkAtProtonMe2 fills | 140-159 | SellYes30¢ → 100¢ | $2,783 | −$6,562 −236% | — |
| 164d | Intelligent-Tax | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,180 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 164d |  y111m11 | 160-179 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,632 | +$68 +4.2% | 21 |
| 164d |  tupac8 | 160-179 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,312 | −$66 −5.0% | — |
| 164d | Intelligent-Tax | 140-159 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,017 | +$68 +6.7% | 22 |
| 164d | Intelligent-Tax | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,073 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 164d | Intelligent-Tax | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,021 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 164d | TomSargent5 fills | 140-159 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $7,311 | +$1,061 +15% | 24 |
| 164d |  Archeroon | 140-159 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$256 +26% | 27 |
| 164d |  winnipeg | 160-179 | SellNo73¢ → 100¢ | $2,245 | −$817 −36% | — |
| 164d | TomSargent | 160-179 | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,620 | +$555 +34% | 29 |
| 164d |  520111 | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 164d | winnipeg | 160-179 | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$761 +38% | 29 |
| 164d | tianjiyuyunzhilu3 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $22,671 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 |
| 164d |  upont | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,359 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 164d | BinaryBaron3 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $28,298 | +$71 +0.3% | 20 |
| 165d | Repulsive-Hit | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,821 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 165d | geraldhew89 | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,353 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 165d | Bankrupt-Loser | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,494 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 165d |  HeroAbc | 140-159 | BuyYes38¢ → 100¢ | $1,038 | +$1,695 +163% | 30 |
| 165d | upont2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,776 | +$49 +0.7% | 20 |
| 165d |  C78123 | 160-179 | SellYes70¢ → 0¢ | $2,087 | +$2,087 +100% | — |
| 165d | DJINZ | 140-159 | SellNo71¢ → 0¢ | $1,083 | +$1,083 +100% | — |
| 165d | startrader2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $3,117 | −$3,117 −100% | 27 |
| 165d | WCWS3 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,586 | +$104 +1.9% | 20 |
| 165d | tupac8 | 140-159 | SellNo61¢ → 0¢ | $1,043 | +$1,043 +100% | — |
| 165d | Dymaknight | 160-179 | SellYes75¢ → 0¢ | $3,149 | +$3,149 +100% | — |
| 165d |  Annica2 fills | 140-159 | BuyYes29¢ → 100¢ | $2,241 | +$5,491 +245% | 33 |
| 165d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 165d | xaeroqkAtProtonMe5 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $9,072 | +$4,351 +48% | 22 |
| 165d | Annica2 fills | 160-179 | SellYes51¢ → 0¢ | $2,270 | +$2,270 +100% | — |
| 165d | upont3 fills | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,030 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 165d | upont | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,484 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 165d | French-Saint | 140-159 | SellYes50¢ → 100¢ | $2,032 | −$2,003 −99% | — |
| 165d | Dymaknight | 160-179 | BuyYes33¢ → 0¢ | $1,400 | −$1,400 −100% | 31 |
| 165d | Dymaknight | 140-159 | SellYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,513 | −$638 −42% | — |
| 165d | Annica | 140-159 | BuyNo17¢ → 0¢ | $1,177 | −$1,177 −100% | 31 |
el-capitano23,140 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 28 12:00 PM ET to May 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 140-159 means the market gives it about 100%.