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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240-259 | 100% | +39 pts | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −6 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −15 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −21 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −3 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −1 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 189d | Noxious-Subtitle | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,626 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | elysiian | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,108 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | 0x2be3…44a5 | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,930 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | benben2026 | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,692 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 190d |  diligentjoe | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,504 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | 4ever3. | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,221 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | Optimal-Overclocking | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,253 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | Actual-Ladle | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,125 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | yip88 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,329 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | Nonsence | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,132 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 190d |  hidden-james | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,027 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | Dense-Muscat | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,984 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | litquiditycapital | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,497 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | johnny-guitar | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,956 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | Poiuztrewq | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,547 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | Icannotwin | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,500 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | Jasonzz | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,393 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | logesh32 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,075 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | Papuasus | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,315 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | DyadyaFedya | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,002 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 190d |  upont3 fills | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $22,969 | −$23 −0.1% | — |
| 190d |  Prexpect2 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $24,266 | +$33 +0.1% | 20 |
| 190d | Gentle-East | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,017 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 190d | upont6 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $27,771 | +$141 +0.5% | 20 |
| 190d | morkolen | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,314 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 190d | BinaryBaron4 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,349 | +$60 +0.3% | 20 |
| 190d | Wagmi420 | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,238 | −$7 −0.3% | — |
| 190d | Wagmi420 | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 190d | upont3 fills | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $14,525 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | debux | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$14 −0.5% | — |
| 190d | Ommamal | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,263 | +$17 +0.4% | 20 |
| 190d |  0000000000000000000000K | 240-259 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,191 | −$13 −0.6% | — |
| 190d | fsdfsdfsdf6 | 240-259 | BuyYes100¢ | $3,197 | +$16 +0.5% | 20 |
| 190d | Ommamal | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,265 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 190d |  LinaBell🦊 | 240-259 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,435 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 190d | yolol3 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $10,032 | +$298 +3.0% | 21 |
| 190d | Collion | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,681 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | Noxious-Subtitle | 240-259 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,761 | +$42 +1.1% | 20 |
| 190d | WCWS | 260-279 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,376 | −$24 −1.7% | — |
| 190d |  Annica3 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,612 | +$151 +2.7% | 21 |
| 190d |  Meow12 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,227 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | 4ever3. | 240-259 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,173 | +$24 +2.0% | 21 |
| 190d |  AlmostRich | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,320 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | WCWS | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | Jasonzz | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,312 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 190d |  110usdc | 220-239 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,199 | −$22 −1.0% | — |
| 190d | Sleepy-Premise | 240-259 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,094 | +$35 +3.2% | 21 |
| 190d |  sondow | 240-259 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,837 | +$51 +1.8% | 21 |
| 190d | MelH | 240-259 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,859 | +$57 +3.1% | 21 |
| 190d | EMbrace | 220-239 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,458 | −$15 −1.0% | — |
| 190d | GRILLEDCHEESESANDWICH87 | 240-259 | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,356 | +$631 +47% | 30 |
| 190d | AlmostRich2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,966 | +$404 +10% | 23 |
| 190d |  jesterthegoose2 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $8,032 | +$1,398 +17% | 25 |
| 190d | startrader | 220-239 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $6,862 | +$507 +7.4% | 22 |
| 190d | Meow12 | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,197 | +$32 +1.0% | 20 |
| 190d | pamparaleipam2 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $3,423 | +$977 +29% | 27 |
| 190d | Actual-Ladle | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,115 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 190d |  ComingBack | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,649 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 190d | Dswang | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,982 | +$16 +0.4% | 20 |
| 190d |  onchainbuda | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,290 | +$9 +0.7% | 20 |
UnpleasantElectrode7 shares
0x146fb4c52,900 shares
nimikm1,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 3 12:00 PM ET to April 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 240-259 means the market gives it about 100%.