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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 195–209 | 100% | +88 pts | +92 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <150 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 150–164 | 0% | — | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165–179 | 0% | −31 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180–194 | 0% | −41 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 210–224 | 0% | −3 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 225–239 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240–254 | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 255–269 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 270–284 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 285–299 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300–314 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 315–329 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 330–344 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 345–359 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360–374 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 375–389 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 390–404 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 405–419 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420–434 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 435–449 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450+ | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 413d | justwant5 | 195–209 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,092 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 413d |  ChunkyMonky | 195–209 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,710 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 413d |  ahahaa66174 | 195–209 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,508 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 413d | Poiuztrewq | 195–209 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,694 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 413d | Poory | 195–209 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,297 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 413d |  Annica | 195–209 | SellYes>99¢ | $18,074 | −$18 −0.1% | — |
| 413d | ShivaLemire | 195–209 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,494 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 414d | Proficient123 | 195–209 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,068 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 414d |  Prexpect2 fills | 195–209 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $11,638 | +$849 +7.3% | 22 |
| 414d | familyfriendly | 195–209 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,813 | −$18 −1.0% | — |
| 414d | Poory | 195–209 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,378 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 414d | XZZD | 450+ | SellNo>99¢ | $3,096 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 414d |  PredictionYogi | 195–209 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,023 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 414d | cipherpilot2 fills | 195–209 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,067 | +$17 +0.3% | 20 |
| 414d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 180–194 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,607 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 414d |  ElonSpam | 195–209 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,531 | +$25 +1.6% | 21 |
| 414d | leiger2 fills | 195–209 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,995 | +$77 +1.9% | 21 |
| 414d | leiger | 345–359 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,580 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 414d | alex562 | 180–194 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,081 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 414d | Proficient123 | 195–209 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,054 | +$15 +1.4% | 20 |
| 414d | leiger | 180–194 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,272 | +$9 +0.4% | 20 |
| 414d | leiger | 450+ | SellNo>99¢ | $4,596 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 414d |  cbo34 | 195–209 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,029 | −$122 −12% | — |
| 414d |  Gustav43 fills | 195–209 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $8,843 | +$1,476 +17% | 25 |
| 414d | cipherpilot | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,032 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 414d | Gustav4 | 150–164 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,278 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 414d | Prexpect | 195–209 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,951 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 414d | glarity2 fills | 195–209 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $6,138 | +$1,019 +17% | 25 |
| 414d |  AgricultureSecretary | 180–194 | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $13,459 | +$3,841 +29% | 27 |
| 414d | Gustav42 fills | 195–209 | SellNo89¢ → 0¢ | $2,294 | +$2,294 +100% | — |
| 414d |  MettaWorldPeace00 | 225–239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,424 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 414d | Annica2 fills | 180–194 | BuyYes97¢ → 0¢ | $2,787 | −$2,787 −100% | 21 |
| 414d | Gustav4 | 180–194 | SellYes98¢ → 0¢ | $1,277 | +$1,277 +100% | — |
| 414d | PredictionYogi | 180–194 | BuyYes100¢ → 0¢ | $1,775 | −$1,775 −100% | 20 |
| 414d | Gustav4 | 195–209 | BuyNo99¢ → 0¢ | $1,475 | −$1,475 −100% | 20 |
| 414d | Annica | 180–194 | SellYes97¢ → 0¢ | $2,369 | +$2,369 +100% | — |
| 414d |  Debosnys | 150–164 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,827 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 414d | AZwater | 210–224 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 414d | ElonSpam | 180–194 | BuyYes98¢ → 0¢ | $1,307 | −$1,307 −100% | 21 |
| 414d | glarity | 180–194 | BuyYes97¢ → 0¢ | $2,706 | −$2,706 −100% | 21 |
| 414d |  EverythingAlwaysHappens | 210–224 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,234 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 414d |  MBB3 | 180–194 | BuyYes97¢ → 0¢ | $3,200 | −$3,200 −100% | 21 |
| 414d | cipherpilot | 180–194 | BuyYes95¢ → 0¢ | $1,070 | −$1,070 −100% | 22 |
| 414d | JUSTICEYOON2 fills | 195–209 | BuyNo91¢ → 0¢ | $2,893 | −$2,893 −100% | 23 |
| 414d | willi98 | 180–194 | BuyYes95¢ → 0¢ | $1,676 | −$1,676 −100% | 22 |
| 414d | cigarettes3 fills | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,243 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 414d | Remorseful-Paste | 180–194 | BuyYes95¢ → 0¢ | $1,322 | −$1,322 −100% | 22 |
| 414d | cigarettes | 195–209 | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $1,880 | −$1,880 −100% | 22 |
| 414d | ChunkyMonky2 fills | 180–194 | BuyYes93¢ → 0¢ | $4,040 | −$4,040 −100% | 22 |
| 414d |  Turtleiny | 150–164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 414d | snoozeman0500 | 180–194 | SellYes92¢ → 0¢ | $1,840 | +$1,840 +100% | — |
| 414d | 0x265f…a448 | 180–194 | BuyYes84¢ → 0¢ | $1,260 | −$1,260 −100% | 24 |
| 414d | EverythingAlwaysHappens | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,213 | +$26 +0.5% | 20 |
| 414d | cipherpilot | 450+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,222 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 414d | cipherpilot | 165–179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,325 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 414d | glarity2 fills | 165–179 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $10,662 | +$259 +2.4% | 21 |
| 414d | glarity | 450+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 414d | imnotthere | 255–269 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 414d | afaus | 195–209 | BuyNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,724 | −$1,724 −100% | 22 |
| 414d | AZwater | 210–224 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,826 | +$32 +1.1% | 20 |
CavaSoTasty4,301 shares
Zighy3,415 shares
phdecon657 shares
FreeCityIndividual600 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between August 22, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and August 29, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 195–209 means the market gives it about 100%.