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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 500–524 | 100% | +41 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <450 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450–474 | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 475–499 | 0% | −35 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 525–549 | 0% | +20 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 550–574 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 575–599 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600–624 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 625–649 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 650+ | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 427d |  Hopingtomakemoney | 525–549 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,774 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 427d | PetWussy | 500–524 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,354 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 427d |  lambda15 | 500–524 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,713 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 427d | Hawkie | 525–549 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,027 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 427d | septemberego | 500–524 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,893 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 427d | Poiuztrewq | 500–524 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,598 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 427d | PHYSIOLOGY | 500–524 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,522 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 428d | 0x265f…a448 | 500–524 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,060 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 428d | FEDchair | 525–549 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,524 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 428d | ShivaLemire | 500–524 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,190 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 428d | 0xtrading | 525–549 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,097 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 428d |  PredictionYogi | 525–549 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,166 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 428d |  Gustav4 | 500–524 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,103 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 428d |  ElonSpam3 fills | 500–524 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $14,943 | +$131 +0.9% | 20 |
| 428d |  Prexpect | 500–524 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,119 | +$33 +0.8% | 20 |
| 428d | wokerjoesleeper | 525–549 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,340 | +$34 +1.0% | 20 |
| 428d | cigarettes2 fills | 525–549 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,628 | +$182 +2.4% | 21 |
| 428d | ElonSpam3 fills | 525–549 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $8,003 | +$261 +3.3% | 21 |
| 428d | lambda15 | 500–524 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,646 | +$69 +4.2% | 21 |
| 428d | PredictionYogi | 500–524 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,287 | +$82 +6.4% | 22 |
| 428d | AZwater | 500–524 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,209 | +$91 +7.5% | 22 |
| 428d | ElonSpam2 fills | 550–574 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,949 | +$59 +1.0% | 20 |
| 428d | cigarettes | 550–574 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,149 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 428d |  MBB3 | 500–524 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,293 | +$283 +12% | 24 |
| 428d | cipherpilot2 fills | 550–574 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,982 | +$18 +0.3% | 20 |
| 428d | wokerjoesleeper | 500–524 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,102 | +$218 +20% | 25 |
| 428d | septemberego | 500–524 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,243 | +$257 +21% | 26 |
| 428d |  vaslevs | 500–524 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,609 | +$692 +43% | 30 |
| 428d | ElonSpam | 650+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,607 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 428d | edison6682 fills | 650+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,993 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 428d |  lolboy4D | 500–524 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,148 | +$405 +35% | 29 |
| 428d |  s1992 | 650+ | SellNo>99¢ | $11,796 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 428d | h0a80 | 650+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,000 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 428d | lambda15 | 500–524 | BuyNo76¢ → 0¢ | $1,250 | −$1,250 −100% | 27 |
| 428d | ihatelee | 500–524 | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $1,490 | −$1,490 −100% | 27 |
| 428d | truthov | 525–549 | SellYes56¢ → 0¢ | $1,089 | +$1,089 +100% | — |
| 428d | JUSTICEYOON | 475–499 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,321 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 428d | FEDchair | 650+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $76,142 | +$76 +0.1% | 20 |
| 428d | ElonSpam4 fills | 575–599 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $25,480 | +$310 +1.2% | 20 |
| 428d | zeus76 | 575–599 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,358 | +$82 +0.9% | 20 |
| 428d | MoRo | 475–499 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,082 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 428d | h0a80 | 650+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 428d | cipherpilot | 575–599 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,963 | +$60 +1.0% | 20 |
| 428d |  NMvapa | 475–499 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,692 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 428d | FEDchair | 475–499 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,136 | +$22 +1.0% | 20 |
| 428d | Rogu | 475–499 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,193 | +$126 +2.0% | 21 |
| 428d |  abraham20511 | 475–499 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,480 | +$51 +2.0% | 21 |
| 428d | Gustav42 fills | 475–499 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $10,377 | +$586 +5.6% | 21 |
| 428d | cipherpilot | 475–499 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,940 | +$60 +2.0% | 21 |
| 428d |  dooby | 475–499 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,352 | +$48 +2.0% | 21 |
| 428d |  arcisdead | 475–499 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,468 | +$112 +2.0% | 21 |
| 428d | abraham20511 | 475–499 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,164 | −$36 −3.1% | — |
| 428d |  Crypto-Dawg | 475–499 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,568 | +$32 +2.0% | 21 |
| 428d |  NotTheBadWolf2 fills | 475–499 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,533 | +$122 +3.5% | 21 |
| 428d | cipherpilot | 475–499 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,080 | −$57 −5.3% | — |
| 428d | NotTheBadWolf | 550–574 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,837 | +$63 +3.4% | 21 |
| 428d |  tiburcio | 550–574 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,250 | +$40 +3.2% | 21 |
| 428d | leiger | 575–599 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,274 | +$30 +1.3% | 20 |
| 428d | leiger | 625–649 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,532 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 428d | ElonSpam | 600–624 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,319 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between August 8, 2025, 8:00 PM ET and August 15, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 500–524 means the market gives it about 100%.