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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260-279 | 100% | +93 pts | +92 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −23 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −10 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −49 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −2 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −1 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 299d |  sallylover | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,001 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 299d | fdgdfg456 | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,195 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 299d | cxvdsfg45 | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,195 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 299d | duzou- | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 299d | duzou- | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 299d | pikaqiuzwx | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 300d |  lavendertown | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 300d | aelicabal | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 300d | roverpredicts | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,599 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 301d |  carryup777 | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,950 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | carryup777 | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | DaphneGG | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | murakamimio | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,506 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | ishiikai | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,100 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | AIPINGCAIHUIYIN | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,680 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | KrisMei | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,000 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | Sallyyoung | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,050 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | FrankSay | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,000 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | KittyKK | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,301 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | Thick-Trend | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,840 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | jijihaoda | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,054 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 301d |  BoringPunter | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | BoringPunter | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $120,837 | −$121 −0.1% | — |
| 301d |  AlexTiger | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,301 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | Harmful-Crisp | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,097 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | OMGIamhere | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,199 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | BeepBopBoopBop | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,267 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | -Rocket- | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,428 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 301d | Lheo | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,575 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 301d |  Fablurou | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,055 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 302d | Thin-Print | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,274 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 302d |  pleasepapaelonimkindahomeless | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,402 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 302d | jnhb | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,155 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 302d |  Rex416 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 302d | 123mamahuhu | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,161 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 302d | yeetttdodddd | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,296 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 302d |  gotoath | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,500 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 302d | ridel | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,308 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 302d |  Prexpect2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $12,150 | +$72 +0.6% | 20 |
| 302d |  noreasapa | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 302d | 123mamahuhu | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,687 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 302d | leyuzhuren | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,006 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 302d | BouncyBob | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,472 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 302d | Wiper0 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,113 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 302d | geraldhew89 | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $22,050 | +$22 +0.1% | 20 |
| 302d | justanotherloss | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,862 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 302d |  ggmggn2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,356 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 302d | forestk | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,006 | −$7 −0.3% | — |
| 302d | ggmggn | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,127 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 302d |  JackSparrowSentMe | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,420 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 302d |  whathaveidone2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$119 +3.0% | 21 |
| 302d | musau | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,738 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 302d | BoBoJi | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,402 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 302d | wokerjoesleeper5 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $9,658 | +$447 +4.6% | 21 |
| 302d | whathaveidone | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,809 | −$7 −0.4% | — |
| 302d | zhihuzheye | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,527 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 302d | influenz.eth3 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,093 | +$45 +0.7% | 20 |
| 302d | ZZ-TIC-M13 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,465 | +$70 +0.7% | 20 |
| 302d |  SweetHanRiver | 260-279 | BuyYes100¢ | $2,352 | +$12 +0.5% | 20 |
| 302d |  KARMASUR | 260-279 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $9,437 | +$193 +2.0% | 21 |
OuchMyBalls6,000 shares
jebalyo1,654 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from December 12 12:00 PM ET to December 19, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 260-279 means the market gives it about 100%.