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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 340-359 | 100% | +8 pts | +24 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −1 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −2 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −4 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −7 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −5 pts | +4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | +1 pts | +18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | +6 pts | +14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | +2 pts | +6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | +2 pts | +1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | +1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 294d | Emperorvikky | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,091 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 294d | Rogu | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,445 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 294d | cambur | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,442 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 294d | datafocus | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,498 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 294d | sangchul | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,549 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 294d | tkmonie | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,107 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 294d | 0xC2B4 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,084 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 294d | polyr | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,491 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 294d | Poiuztrewq | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,253 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 294d |  Rex416 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,045 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 294d | SilentWinner619 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,335 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 294d | 0x265f…a4482 fills | 340-359 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $5,815 | −$485 −8.3% | — |
| 294d | seeuall | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,205 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 294d |  BLOODOFJESUS | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,627 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 294d | hifren | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,020 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 294d |  noreasapa | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,245 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 294d | Icannotwin | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,828 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 295d |  KARMASUR | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $10,293 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 295d | Matelleti | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,586 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 295d | aintaveragegambler | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,104 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 295d |  500AndADream | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,107 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 295d | almondlover9 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,592 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 295d | ballsdeep69420 | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,235 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 295d | cucuruzblindat | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,469 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 295d |  pleasepapaelonimkindahomeless | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,940 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 295d | bnone | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,399 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 295d | ridel | 340-359 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,291 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 295d |  Annica8 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $37,787 | +$49 +0.1% | 20 |
| 295d | Joyful-Automaton4 fills | 360-379 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $6,855 | −$365 −5.3% | — |
| 295d |  Prexpect2 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,966 | +$34 +0.2% | 20 |
| 295d |  Gustav4 | 360-379 | BuyNo100¢ | $2,299 | +$12 +0.5% | 20 |
| 295d | KARMASUR | 360-379 | BuyNo100¢ | $20,435 | +$103 +0.5% | 20 |
| 295d | 0xC2B4 | 340-359 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,063 | +$31 +1.0% | 20 |
| 295d | Annica5 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $6,727 | +$428 +6.4% | 22 |
| 295d | Joyful-Automaton4 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,026 | +$193 +2.7% | 21 |
| 295d | l-love-you | 340-359 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,963 | +$142 +2.0% | 21 |
| 295d | KARMASUR | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,697 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 295d | Prexpect2 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $5,093 | +$1,801 +35% | 29 |
| 295d |  lafougere2 fills | 340-359 | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,246 | −$391 −17% | — |
| 295d |  HuskyWins | 360-379 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | +$67 +6.6% | 22 |
| 295d | Prexpect | 340-359 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,408 | −$92 −6.5% | — |
| 295d | lafougere2 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,485 | +$151 +6.1% | 22 |
| 295d | Joyful-Automaton | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,792 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 295d | LazyWanker2 fills | 340-359 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $3,022 | +$429 +14% | 24 |
| 295d |  eggspectation | 340-359 | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,392 | −$314 −23% | — |
| 295d | wrh | 360-379 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,486 | +$262 +18% | 25 |
| 295d |  PredictionYogi | 340-359 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | +$300 +18% | 25 |
| 295d | zxzxzxzx | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $10,609 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 295d | luckyshoe | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,846 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 295d |  Elanus | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,056 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 295d |  Jakob47 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,492 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 295d |  lasiweijiasi2 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,925 | +$15 +0.5% | 20 |
| 295d |  JonaMar666 | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,107 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 |
| 295d | dmitrii146 | 320-339 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,748 | −$18 −1.0% | — |
| 295d | nodemonkes | 340-359 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $4,017 | +$687 +17% | 25 |
| 295d | sppp | 360-379 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,069 | −$124 −12% | — |
| 295d | lirye | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,280 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 295d |  ElonSpam | 340-359 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,310 | +$114 +8.7% | 23 |
| 295d | sppp | 360-379 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,144 | +$49 +4.2% | 21 |
| 295d | leiger | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,500 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
MoneyDream1,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from December 19 12:00 PM ET to December 26, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 340-359 means the market gives it about 100%.