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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 420-439 | 100% | +76 pts | +99 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −2 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −8 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −3 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −8 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −2 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −2 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −8 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −9 pts | +3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | −26 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −4 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | −32 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | −22 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | −10 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | −7 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 311d |  InsuranceSavesMe2 fills | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,059 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 311d |  Zenef2 | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,299 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 311d | theonlyking | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,497 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 311d | askero | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $8,154 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 311d | nickok | 460-479 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,141 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 311d | bisert | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $5,871 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 311d | Medium-Effector | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,012 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 311d | forestk | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,881 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 311d |  Ox1b1osgjjh173hdhdyy19h18hshbcndims12gsn | 420-439 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,890 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 311d | Lean-Pelt | 420-439 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 311d | d1ench1ksxy | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,081 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 311d | Crronz2 fills | 440-459 | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $5,493 | −$789 −14% | — |
| 311d |  pleasepapaelonimkindahomeless | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,565 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 311d |  mossagent | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 311d | jamesab | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,227 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 311d | Robin-LF | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,131 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 311d |  Annica10 fills | 420-439 | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $32,851 | −$4,542 −14% | — |
| 311d |  LeftiCurveMaxi | 440-459 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,082 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 311d | justwant5 | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,228 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 311d | karenkarl | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,278 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 311d | InsuranceSavesMe | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 311d | 20BPS | 420-439 | BuyYes>99¢ | $26,448 | +$26 +0.1% | 20 |
| 311d | Abandoned-Counsel15 fills | 420-439 | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,686 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 311d | Gourdin | 420-439 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 311d | gmfineshy | 420-439 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,386 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 311d |  liubangdahanEmp | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,065 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 311d |  ElonSpam2 fills | 420-439 | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,002 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 311d |  isunou | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,980 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 311d | Annica9 fills | 420-439 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $33,460 | +$5,006 +15% | 22 |
| 311d | influenz.eth2 fills | 440-459 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,730 | +$156 +3.3% | 21 |
| 311d | niceShare | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,391 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 311d | calvinhobbes123 | 420-439 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 311d |  BoringPunter | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $39,960 | +$40 +0.1% | 20 |
| 311d | xwsh | 420-439 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,647 | −$29 −1.1% | — |
| 311d | fakerrrrrrr | 420-439 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,198 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 311d | Pusko | 420-439 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,227 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 311d |  Gustav4 | 420-439 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,679 | +$29 +0.3% | 20 |
| 311d |  PredictionYogi5 fills | 420-439 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $13,337 | +$280 +2.1% | 21 |
| 311d | noovd3 fills | 420-439 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $20,207 | +$340 +1.7% | 21 |
| 311d | geraldhew89 | 440-459 | BuyNo100¢ | $5,814 | +$29 +0.5% | 20 |
| 311d | karenkarl | 420-439 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,270 | +$9 +0.7% | 20 |
| 311d | AvishaiBass | 420-439 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,290 | +$23 +1.0% | 20 |
| 311d | Wicked-Mayonnaise | 440-459 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,595 | +$100 +1.3% | 21 |
| 311d |  axelverse.sol | 460-479 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 311d | influenz.eth2 fills | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,419 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 311d | 0x265f…a448 | 420-439 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,446 | −$54 −3.8% | — |
| 311d | PredictionYogi | 460-479 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,444 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 311d |  awaylot | 420-439 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,910 | +$90 +3.1% | 21 |
| 311d | Thin-Print4 fills | 440-459 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $25,594 | +$630 +2.5% | 21 |
| 311d | Thin-Print | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $16,068 | −$16 −0.1% | — |
| 311d | Poory | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,014 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 311d | Thin-Print | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 311d |  Prexpect2 fills | 420-439 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $12,175 | +$2,157 +18% | 25 |
| 311d | PredictionYogi | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 311d | liubangdahanEmp | 420-439 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,034 | +$33 +3.2% | 21 |
| 311d | mosclo | 420-439 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,175 | +$73 +3.4% | 21 |
| 311d | eldashpol | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,200 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 311d | OMGIamhere | 420-439 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,719 | +$144 +8.4% | 23 |
| 311d | AlexPro | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,160 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 311d | WaterL | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,490 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
OuchMyBalls16,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from December 2 12:00 PM ET to December 9, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 420-439 means the market gives it about 100%.