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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 520-539 | 100% | +68 pts | +99 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | 0 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | −15 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | −23 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | −14 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | −7 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580-599 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-619 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 620-639 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 640-659 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 660-679 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 680-699 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 700-719 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 720-739 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 740+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 283d | lexrumx2 fills | 560-579 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,858 | −$304 −5.2% | — |
| 283d | tucnycigan420 | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,101 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | asrai-prediction | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,272 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | wanwanchichi | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,283 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | Cipry | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,247 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 283d |  Zenef2 | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,830 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 283d |  MeetWeb3-Token | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,085 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | BaaDsHa | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,249 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | Phony-Diploma | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | Trick | 600-619 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,340 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | Trick | 540-559 | SellNo>99¢ | $17,863 | −$18 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | Vjaja | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,492 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | Cyg123 | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,553 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | CypherCrypt0 | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,707 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 283d |  KARMASUR | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $72,752 | −$73 −0.1% | — |
| 283d |  Saint-Rupert | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,236 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 283d |  saragus | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,360 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | xuegao233 | 560-579 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,022 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | Unique-Insurgence2 fills | 520-539 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $9,262 | −$254 −2.7% | — |
| 283d |  Vivalavidaaaaa | 560-579 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,878 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | nodemonkes | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,302 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | Poiuztrewq | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,797 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | runzero | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,043 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | IO. | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,931 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | 0x265f…a448 | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,345 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | bnone | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,346 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | asdasdrgdfg3 fills | 540-559 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,985 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 283d |  0xnukl1on | 520-539 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,241 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | 0xc4ca…3df3 | 540-559 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,018 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 283d | kobie3 | 520-539 | BuyYes>99¢ | $80,721 | +$81 +0.1% | 20 |
| 283d |  Romeo005 | 520-539 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,248 | −$8 −0.6% | — |
| 283d | astromage | 540-559 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,940 | +$24 +0.2% | 20 |
| 283d | KARMASUR | 520-539 | BuyYes>99¢ | $72,680 | +$145 +0.2% | 20 |
| 283d |  Prexpect | 520-539 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,566 | +$28 +0.6% | 20 |
| 283d | 0x429 | 520-539 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,137 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 283d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 520-539 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$51 +1.0% | 20 |
| 283d | jingur | 520-539 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$20 +1.0% | 20 |
| 283d | CypherCrypt0 | 520-539 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,658 | +$52 +1.1% | 20 |
| 283d |  badmoshbillu | 540-559 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,878 | +$115 +1.1% | 20 |
| 283d |  PredictionYogi | 520-539 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,640 | +$35 +1.3% | 20 |
| 283d | Trick2 fills | 540-559 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $15,382 | +$395 +2.6% | 21 |
| 283d | geraldhew89 | 520-539 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $13,414 | +$286 +2.1% | 21 |
| 283d | nodemonkes | 520-539 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$312 +3.1% | 21 |
| 283d | 0xnukl1on | 520-539 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,202 | +$41 +3.4% | 21 |
| 283d | teenneth | 540-559 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$54 +5.4% | 22 |
| 283d | btacc | 540-559 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,259 | +$95 +7.5% | 22 |
| 283d | cigarettes | 540-559 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,286 | +$97 +7.5% | 22 |
| 283d | safecalm2 fills | 520-539 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $4,006 | +$1,048 +26% | 27 |
| 283d | forestk | 520-539 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,924 | +$424 +22% | 26 |
| 283d | yyyyyyyyyyyyyyang | 580-599 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,141 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | LazyWanker | 540-559 | SellYes19¢ → 0¢ | $1,066 | +$1,066 +100% | — |
| 283d | Houdray3 fills | 520-539 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $5,522 | +$1,970 +36% | 29 |
| 283d | SuperBet696 fills | 520-539 | SellYes64¢ → 100¢ | $8,822 | −$4,978 −56% | — |
| 284d | btacc2 fills | 520-539 | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $4,179 | +$1,647 +39% | 29 |
| 284d |  Gustav43 fills | 560-579 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $13,632 | +$313 +2.3% | 21 |
| 284d | btacc | 580-599 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,627 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | Flancho | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,008 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 284d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,000 | +$54 +0.3% | 20 |
| 284d | Gustav42 fills | 500-519 | SellNo>99¢ | $42,420 | −$42 −0.1% | — |
| 284d | btacc | 520-539 | SellNo32¢ → 0¢ | $1,977 | +$1,977 +100% | — |
OuchMyBalls11,000 shares
vjtonway3,657 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from December 30 12:00 PM ET to January 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 520-539 means the market gives it about 100%.