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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 440-459 | 100% | +65 pts | +99 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −3 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | −21 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | −33 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | −12 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | −6 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 308d | theonlyking | 440-459 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,720 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 308d | DorksRM | 440-459 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,279 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 308d | Sammypogback | 440-459 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,061 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 308d |  KVBA7 | 460-479 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,265 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 308d |  noreasapa | 440-459 | SellYes>99¢ | $19,980 | −$20 −0.1% | — |
| 308d |  MrLucker | 440-459 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,097 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 308d | 123mamahuhu | 440-459 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,321 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 308d |  Khilari | 440-459 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,553 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 308d | Noxious-Hug | 440-459 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,348 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 308d |  pleasepapaelonimkindahomeless | 440-459 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,063 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 308d |  tripping | 440-459 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,901 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 308d | 0x265f…a448 | 440-459 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,566 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 308d |  BidenFan | 440-459 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,698 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 308d | noreasapa | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,333 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | noovd | 440-459 | BuyYes>99¢ | $31,583 | +$32 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | Wicked-Mayonnaise | 440-459 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,813 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d | AZwater | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,980 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 308d |  HowToBasic | 440-459 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 308d |  lavendertown | 440-459 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,000 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 308d | flyingpiglj | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $25,375 | −$25 −0.1% | — |
| 308d | Emperorvikky | 460-479 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,130 | −$28 −0.9% | — |
| 308d |  alexfunfunfun | 460-479 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,064 | +$25 +0.6% | 20 |
| 308d | kripredicts | 440-459 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,256 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 308d | Lheo | 440-459 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,488 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 308d | lexrumx | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,703 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 308d | pol76 | 460-479 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,945 | +$55 +1.1% | 20 |
| 309d | ZZ-TIC-M1 | 440-459 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,507 | +$39 +1.1% | 20 |
| 309d | influenz.eth2 fills | 460-479 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,794 | +$100 +2.1% | 21 |
| 309d |  Prexpect | 440-459 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,557 | +$22 +1.4% | 20 |
| 309d | lavendertown | 460-479 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,053 | −$20 −1.9% | — |
| 309d |  Doom.kai | 440-459 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,067 | +$27 +1.3% | 20 |
| 309d | cucuruzblindat | 440-459 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,290 | −$20 −1.5% | — |
| 309d |  awaylot | 440-459 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,314 | −$35 −1.5% | — |
| 309d | BouncyBob2 fills | 460-479 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,662 | +$38 +1.4% | 20 |
| 309d | alfredoKILO | 460-479 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,818 | +$24 +1.3% | 20 |
| 309d |  Easying-Fleeman | 460-479 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,915 | +$191 +1.9% | 21 |
| 309d | kijore | 460-479 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,044 | +$56 +2.7% | 21 |
| 309d | gawedd | 460-479 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,096 | +$65 +3.1% | 21 |
| 309d | kigasd | 460-479 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,906 | +$62 +3.3% | 21 |
| 309d |  JAHODA | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $36,015 | +$36 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | jukilott | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,091 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | alreww | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,921 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | Lessgo123 | 440-459 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,807 | +$117 +4.2% | 21 |
| 309d | influenz.eth | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,461 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | wokerjoesleeper | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,461 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d |  flow-trader-at-optiver4 fills | 460-479 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $9,048 | +$1,153 +13% | 24 |
| 309d | GoldenFinger | 440-459 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$418 +4.2% | 21 |
| 309d | flow-trader-at-optiver6 fills | 480-499 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,373 | +$85 +0.7% | 20 |
| 309d | kijorre | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,068 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | efase223 | 440-459 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,058 | +$127 +6.2% | 22 |
| 309d | geraldhew89 | 460-479 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $6,172 | +$348 +5.6% | 22 |
| 309d | lofarell | 460-479 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,934 | +$125 +6.4% | 22 |
| 309d | dss331 | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,986 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | luyiyuij | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,497 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 309d | lavendertown | 460-479 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$65 +6.5% | 22 |
| 309d | Emperorvikky | 440-459 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,113 | −$117 −10% | — |
| 309d | Sammypogback | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,015 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 309d | clayjosn1 | 460-479 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $4,785 | +$338 +7.1% | 22 |
| 309d | WHYLLLLL | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,782 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 309d | hallok | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,104 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
OuchMyBalls15,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from December 5 12:00 PM ET to December 12, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 440-459 means the market gives it about 100%.