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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260-279 | 100% | +54 pts | +88 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −2 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −7 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −37 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −8 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −2 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 304d |  Zamasuu | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,046 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | Bitgod2 fills | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,689 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | Crronz | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,431 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | jingur | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,068 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | Thin-Print | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,341 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 304d |  InfinitePain | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,167 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | Rogu | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,052 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 304d |  MrLucker | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,696 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 304d |  BidenFan | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,098 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 304d |  786B | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,154 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 304d |  LeftiCurveMaxi | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,250 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 304d |  abhionpoly | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,020 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 304d |  Annica3 fills | 260-279 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,317 | −$54 −0.9% | — |
| 304d | anon202 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | Maxiluck | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,999 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | mintchocolate | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,657 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | lexrumx | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,674 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 304d | Lheo | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,616 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 304d |  Fablurou | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,788 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 304d |  pleasepapaelonimkindahomeless | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,369 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 304d |  vayz | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $14,486 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 304d |  KARMASUR | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,832 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 305d | Jason2025 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,926 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 305d | Annica9 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $38,502 | +$764 +2.0% | 21 |
| 305d |  AlexTiger | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,892 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 305d | AlexTiger | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,198 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 305d | danielhashman | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,133 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 305d | Maxiluck | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,999 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 305d | donttry | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,335 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 305d | InfinitePain | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,039 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 305d | abhionpoly | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,019 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 305d | BoBoJi2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $24,367 | +$35 +0.1% | 20 |
| 305d | influenz.eth4 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,552 | +$109 +2.0% | 21 |
| 305d | LightYagami.D | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,006 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 305d | bb999 | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,000 | +$16 +0.4% | 20 |
| 305d | Constancefung | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,238 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 305d | l-love-you2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,084 | +$36 +0.9% | 20 |
| 305d | justanotherloss | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 305d | justanotherloss | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,500 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 305d |  lasiweijiasi | 280-299 | BuyNo100¢ | $3,000 | +$15 +0.5% | 20 |
| 305d | Hawkie | 280-299 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,493 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 305d | anciente | 280-299 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,672 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 305d | zhihuzheye | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,048 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 305d | cigarettes2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,071 | +$49 +0.8% | 20 |
| 305d |  lavendertown2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,000 | +$22 +0.4% | 20 |
| 305d |  Doom.kai | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,205 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 305d | dudukos | 260-279 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 305d | jingur | 260-279 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,095 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 305d | ZZ-TIC-M1 | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,682 | +$67 +1.0% | 20 |
| 305d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,445 | +$120 +2.7% | 21 |
| 305d | mosclo | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,054 | +$15 +1.5% | 20 |
| 305d |  JoeMaserati | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,019 | +$46 +1.5% | 21 |
| 305d |  alexfunfunfun | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$14 +1.3% | 20 |
| 305d | lexrumx | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,056 | +$12 +1.1% | 20 |
| 305d | clayjosn1 | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,664 | +$74 +1.1% | 20 |
| 305d |  ComingBack | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$22 +1.1% | 20 |
| 305d |  LinaBell🦊 | 260-279 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,527 | +$33 +2.1% | 21 |
| 305d | KARMASUR | 260-279 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,258 | +$32 +2.6% | 21 |
| 305d | marissa46 | 260-279 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,043 | +$27 +2.6% | 21 |
| 305d | donttry | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,101 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
OuchMyBalls13,185 shares
annoyinglowie3,538 shares
VibeTrader1,677 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from December 9 12:00 PM ET to December 16, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 260-279 means the market gives it about 100%.