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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90-114 | 100% | +62 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −55 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −52 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 254d | yip88 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,128 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 254d |  TweetPulse.Live | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,215 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 254d |  Lumi5 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,355 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 254d |  Gabbers | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,246 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | Immaterial-Confectionery | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,201 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | Jopl9092 fills | 90-114 | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $2,303 | −$594 −26% | — |
| 254d | DegenEriccro | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,631 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | BallenaInversa | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,510 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | Sukasushi | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,008 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | Sarths | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,488 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | Kurai | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,210 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | 0xf328…2b78 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,011 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | Donation22 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,034 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | Thin-Print | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,028 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 254d |  Rex416 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | DM7622 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,380 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | LIQUID8dCAP | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,114 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | samponcudinti | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,656 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | annerexx2 fills | 115-139 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,014 | −$252 −5.0% | — |
| 254d |  stauffen | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,992 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 255d |  0xzfl | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,661 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | 0xfc8d…55c5 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,163 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | besmart2025 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,158 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | cucuruzblindat | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,618 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 255d |  FFIE. | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,966 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | Blueangels | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,366 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | YYDS9527 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,432 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | Unused-Stimulation | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,059 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | Tasty-BalconyNew account | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,032 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | 28s | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,280 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | 0x265f…a4484 fills | 90-114 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $9,940 | −$260 −2.6% | — |
| 255d | MovingForward | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,080 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | bnone | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,690 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | Stinkers777 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 255d |  Annica13 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes20¢ → 100¢ | $62,706 | +$254K +405% | 49 |
| 255d | GodPlsSaveMe | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,864 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 255d |  Gustav43 fills | 115-139 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $9,641 | −$440 −4.6% | — |
| 255d | DM76222 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,967 | +$140 +2.3% | 21 |
| 255d | Gustav42 fills | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $37,295 | −$37 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | mza55 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,583 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 255d | failstober | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,643 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 255d |  Prexpect | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,871 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 255d |  BergelBanned | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,165 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | Prexpect5 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $24,931 | +$184 +0.7% | 20 |
| 255d | FakeX | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,502 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 255d | winwinwingo | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,495 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 255d | Shallow-Actor | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,576 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 255d | FakeX | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,502 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 255d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $4,381 | +$969 +22% | 25 |
| 255d | volume12 fills | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,481 | −$26 −0.5% | — |
| 255d | Ashurnasirpal2 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,266 | +$42 +1.8% | 21 |
| 255d |  HowToBasic | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$20 +1.0% | 20 |
| 255d | Rizh | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,512 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | moxigan | 90-114 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,464 | −$36 −2.5% | — |
| 255d |  Loser229 | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,403 | +$17 +1.2% | 20 |
| 255d | Oxford-Alpha-Fund2 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $21,894 | +$283 +1.3% | 20 |
| 255d | influenz.eth3 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,012 | +$96 +2.4% | 21 |
| 255d | YYDS9527 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,498 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | Immaterial-Confectionery2 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,838 | +$80 +2.1% | 21 |
| 255d |  bigguy4u | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,855 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 2 12:00 PM ET to February 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 90-114 means the market gives it about 100%.