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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200-219 | 100% | −1 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | +6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | +5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | +1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | +1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | +1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 227d |  bigguy4u | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,693 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 227d |  Therealsmurf | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,748 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 227d | Thomas666 | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,045 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 227d | ak969696 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,208 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 227d | Everlasting-Priority | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,430 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 227d |  crvAlex | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,310 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 227d | angelo129613 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,293 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 228d | forestk | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,721 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 228d | Poiuztrewq | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,299 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 228d |  toohot | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,213 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 228d | 7G-MAN6 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,301 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 228d |  noreasapa | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 228d |  PredictionYogi6 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $17,336 | +$1,369 +7.9% | 22 |
| 228d | k7sh3 fills | 220-239 | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $15,619 | −$2,884 −18% | — |
| 228d | Next-Carol | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,439 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 228d | Barack.Obama2 fills | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,657 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 228d | Q.bk | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,300 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 228d | jingjiu2 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,141 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 228d | niceShare | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,430 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 228d |  LinaBell🦊3 fills | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,769 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 228d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 228d | chen12a | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,164 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 228d |  URATOKYO | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,743 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 228d | dudukos2 fills | 200-219 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,025 | −$150 −3.0% | — |
| 228d | Hiworld. | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,351 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 228d | carboyant | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,588 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 228d |  Prexpect3 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,401 | +$25 +0.2% | 20 |
| 228d | BinaryBaron5 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,333 | +$81 +0.4% | 20 |
| 228d | 0x265f…a448 | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,597 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 228d |  VCVIC | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,517 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 228d |  zouranzoki | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,158 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 228d | Ashurnasirpal | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,993 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 228d | k7sh2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,485 | +$21 +0.5% | 20 |
| 228d | Ommamal | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,494 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 228d | Puzzled-Homeland | 200-219 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,134 | −$11 −0.9% | — |
| 228d | BinaryBaron | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,097 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 228d | zzzzdas | 200-219 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,599 | −$32 −2.0% | — |
| 228d | Prexpect | 200-219 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,981 | −$19 −1.0% | — |
| 228d | bipbipbop | 200-219 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,489 | −$10 −0.7% | — |
| 228d | bipbipbop2 fills | 220-239 | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $2,464 | −$481 −20% | — |
| 228d | k7sh | 200-219 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | −$6 −0.6% | — |
| 228d | whitedolphin | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,433 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 228d |  oefwe | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,048 | −$8 −0.4% | — |
| 228d | These-Yoyo2 fills | 180-199 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,310 | −$80 −1.5% | — |
| 228d | delfin1 | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,037 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 228d | k7sh | 200-219 | BuyYes100¢ | $2,575 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 228d | pol76 | 200-219 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,288 | +$172 +2.4% | 21 |
| 228d | loveheng | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,936 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 228d |  ghostfaded | 200-219 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,151 | −$151 −2.9% | — |
| 228d | cucuruzblindat | 200-219 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,635 | +$39 +2.4% | 21 |
| 228d | URATOKYO | 200-219 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,394 | +$56 +2.4% | 21 |
| 228d | zouranzoki | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,145 | +$15 +1.3% | 20 |
| 228d |  eI0zwvzk | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,709 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 228d | dravey2 fills | 220-239 | SellNo77¢ → 100¢ | $19,556 | −$5,771 −30% | — |
| 228d | SteveFill | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,104 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 228d | zouranzoki | 200-219 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,145 | −$25 −2.2% | — |
| 228d | Next-Carol | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,411 | +$30 +2.1% | 21 |
| 228d | rated | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,001 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 228d | forestk | 200-219 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,585 | +$143 +2.2% | 21 |
| 228d | zouranzoki | 200-219 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,128 | +$42 +3.7% | 21 |
nimikm3,300 shares
Nikolai4162,763 shares
gooseridingassad2,390 shares
varuverma2,378 shares
Chulii2,340 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 24 12:00 PM ET to March 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 200-219 means the market gives it about 100%.