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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 650-674 | 100% | +80 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <500 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-524 | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 525-549 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 550-574 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 575-599 | 0% | −6 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-624 | 0% | −16 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 625-649 | 0% | −25 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 675-699 | 0% | −7 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 750+ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 700-724 | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 725-749 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 616d | 0x6c49dd7172e689439a80c1de3d165d7d55d7ee5d | 650-674 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,283 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 616d | 0rocky007 | 750+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,353 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 616d |  Wiz92 | 675-699 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,025 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 616d | Vinivi | 650-674 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,927 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 616d | 98636uygyfjhtftrdtdfhtrtdtyftftyyfuuiouojh | 650-674 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,194 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 616d |  Faladian | 650-674 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,419 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 616d | whfbjwh | 650-674 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,087 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 616d | ImNotSmart | 650-674 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,273 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 616d |  catasus2 fills | 675-699 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 616d | Rogu | 650-674 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,378 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 616d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 650-674 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $6,862 | +$676 +9.8% | 20 |
| 616d |  Prexpect | 650-674 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,190 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 616d |  Therealsmurf | 650-674 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,272 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 616d | AZwater | 675-699 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,774 | +$18 +1.0% | 20 |
| 616d | PredictionYogi | 675-699 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,774 | +$18 +1.0% | 20 |
| 616d | wokerjoesleeper | 675-699 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,516 | +$26 +1.7% | 20 |
| 616d | cigarettes | 675-699 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,938 | +$50 +2.6% | 20 |
| 616d | 0xeccdededcc3 fills | 650-674 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $7,855 | +$2,576 +33% | 20 |
| 617d | PredictionYogi | 650-674 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,940 | −$60 −3.1% | — |
| 617d |  Gustav4 | 650-674 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,112 | +$88 +4.2% | 20 |
| 617d | Monster24 | 675-699 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,686 | +$107 +2.9% | 20 |
| 617d | Monster24 | 650-674 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,686 | +$154 +4.2% | 20 |
| 617d | SirDragon | 650-674 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,675 | +$250 +15% | 20 |
| 617d |  ImAlwaysWrong | 650-674 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,126 | +$199 +18% | 20 |
| 617d | Lavs3838 | 675-699 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $6,193 | +$1,093 +18% | 20 |
| 617d | Miki97 | 650-674 | SellNo42¢ → 0¢ | $1,069 | +$1,069 +100% | — |
| 617d | astromage2 fills | 700-724 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,242 | +$62 +0.5% | 20 |
| 617d |  P0lieM4rketCEO | 650-674 | BuyNo72¢ → 0¢ | $1,516 | −$1,516 −100% | 20 |
| 617d | Seenart2 fills | 650-674 | BuyNo59¢ → 0¢ | $2,473 | −$2,473 −100% | 20 |
| 617d |  lolboy4D | 650-674 | BuyYes49¢ → 100¢ | $2,354 | +$2,436 +104% | 20 |
| 617d | catasus | 650-674 | BuyYes51¢ → 100¢ | $1,050 | +$1,010 +96% | 20 |
| 617d | lolboy4D | 650-674 | SellNo41¢ → 0¢ | $1,131 | +$1,131 +100% | — |
| 617d | Miki97 | 650-674 | BuyNo65¢ → 0¢ | $1,639 | −$1,639 −100% | 20 |
| 617d |  Flaner | 650-674 | BuyNo58¢ → 0¢ | $1,535 | −$1,535 −100% | 20 |
| 617d | ImAlwaysWrong | 650-674 | BuyNo60¢ → 0¢ | $1,531 | −$1,531 −100% | 20 |
| 617d | ImNotSmart3 fills | 750+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,605 | +$21 +0.2% | 20 |
| 617d | Trustme11 | 650-674 | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,369 | −$369 −27% | — |
| 617d | 0rocky007 | 750+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,278 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 617d | leiger2 fills | 700-724 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,509 | +$30 +0.9% | 20 |
| 617d | catasus2 fills | 650-674 | BuyNo28¢ → 0¢ | $3,797 | −$3,797 −100% | 26 |
| 617d | onlos | 650-674 | BuyNo60¢ → 0¢ | $1,199 | −$1,199 −100% | 20 |
| 617d | Snoorrason3 fills | 650-674 | SellYes58¢ → 100¢ | $5,511 | −$4,050 −73% | — |
| 617d |  CallmeEuphoria | 725-749 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | −$6 −0.6% | — |
| 617d | CallmeEuphoria | 750+ | SellNo100¢ | $1,039 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 617d | lolboy4D | 650-674 | BuyNo48¢ → 0¢ | $1,429 | −$1,429 −100% | 20 |
| 617d |  Gooddfella | 650-674 | SellYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,721 | −$806 −47% | — |
| 617d | m1chelle | 725-749 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$34 +2.8% | 20 |
| 617d | catasus | 650-674 | SellYes46¢ → 100¢ | $2,853 | −$3,350 −117% | — |
| 617d | Seenart | 625-649 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,178 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 617d | ag71 | 675-699 | SellNo60¢ → 100¢ | $2,155 | −$1,437 −67% | — |
| 617d | Aco-632 | 675-699 | SellNo60¢ → 100¢ | $1,008 | −$672 −67% | — |
| 617d | negar | 675-699 | BuyYes38¢ → 0¢ | $1,070 | −$1,070 −100% | 20 |
| 617d | BTCDegen | 625-649 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,430 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 617d |  Camarad2 fills | 650-674 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $3,564 | +$1,065 +30% | 20 |
| 617d |  AgricultureSecretary | 625-649 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,931 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 617d | leiger | 750+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,958 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 617d | Alee1201 | 625-649 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | −$61 −5.9% | — |
| 617d | BTCDegen | 625-649 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,209 | +$17 +1.4% | 20 |
| 617d | aaa501845257 | 625-649 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,072 | +$114 +5.5% | 20 |
| 617d | 0rocky007 | 625-649 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,359 | +$43 +3.2% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between January 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and February 7, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 650-674 means the market gives it about 100%.