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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 165-189 | 100% | +64 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −17 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −33 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −28 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | −40 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 272d |  KARMASUR2 fills | 165-189 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,183 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 272d | BaaDsHa2 fills | 165-189 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,000 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 272d |  500AndADream | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,106 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | 500AndADream | 240+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,062 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | Moodgoodbpm | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,704 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | Dearest-DisciplineNew account | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,384 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | Dearest-DisciplineNew account | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,042 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | GJLCS | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,195 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | SuperBet69 | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,509 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 272d |  Allrigjt | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,417 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | Hexagon555 | 165-189 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,868 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d |  Leirth | 165-189 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,877 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | besmart2025 | 165-189 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,740 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | Toporceanu | 165-189 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,493 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | Positive-Passing | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,234 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | BaaDsHa | 165-189 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,601 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | jyttt | 165-189 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,013 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d |  PredictionYogi | 165-189 | SellYes>99¢ | $26,585 | −$27 −0.1% | — |
| 272d |  VibeTrader | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,969 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d | 0x265f…a448 | 165-189 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,051 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 272d |  ggmggn | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,140 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 272d | O.G.Degen | 165-189 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,691 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 272d |  Gustav42 fills | 165-189 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,172 | +$44 +0.5% | 20 |
| 272d | PredictionYogi4 fills | 165-189 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,251 | +$77 +0.8% | 20 |
| 272d |  ThereIsntABubble | 165-189 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,393 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 272d | Toporceanu | 165-189 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,485 | +$10 +0.7% | 20 |
| 272d |  Prexpect | 165-189 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,079 | +$10 +0.9% | 20 |
| 272d | wokerjoesleeper | 190-214 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,069 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 272d | Leirth | 165-189 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,825 | +$57 +1.2% | 20 |
| 272d |  zwxokx | 165-189 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,348 | +$49 +3.6% | 21 |
| 272d |  awaylot2 fills | 165-189 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,319 | +$167 +7.2% | 22 |
| 272d |  LazzyBear | 165-189 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,071 | +$67 +6.3% | 22 |
| 272d | KARMASUR | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,929 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 272d | ggmggn | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 272d | Flancho2 fills | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,797 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 273d | monastyr | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,393 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 273d | Prexpect2 fills | 215-239 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,190 | +$95 +3.0% | 21 |
| 273d | dudukos | 190-214 | SellYes51¢ → 0¢ | $1,152 | +$1,152 +100% | — |
| 273d | Frontiersman | 165-189 | SellNo70¢ → 0¢ | $1,174 | +$1,174 +100% | — |
| 273d | Gustav4 | 165-189 | BuyNo90¢ → 0¢ | $4,476 | −$4,476 −100% | 23 |
| 273d | notmuch | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,909 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 273d | Laurenman | 215-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,986 | +$14 +0.7% | 20 |
| 273d |  beosus.eth | 165-189 | BuyYes64¢ → 100¢ | $1,202 | +$668 +56% | 30 |
| 273d | sushibot | 215-239 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,490 | −$11 −0.7% | — |
| 273d | besmart2025 | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,992 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 273d | onekey09 | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,077 | +$21 +0.1% | 20 |
| 273d |  c4acap | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,625 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 273d | Matelleti | 165-189 | SellNo49¢ → 0¢ | $1,470 | +$1,470 +100% | — |
| 273d | Positive-Passing | 215-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,083 | +$159 +2.2% | 21 |
| 273d | Leirth | 240+ | SellNo>99¢ | $4,825 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 273d | Allrigjt | 190-214 | BuyNo45¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$1,320 +120% | 30 |
| 273d | SuperBet69 | 165-189 | SellNo60¢ → 0¢ | $1,640 | +$1,640 +100% | — |
| 273d | Poory | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,876 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 273d |  eI0zwvzk | 190-214 | BuyNo52¢ → 100¢ | $2,023 | +$1,868 +92% | 30 |
| 273d | Prexpect2 fills | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,214 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 273d | sushibot | 215-239 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,932 | +$168 +5.7% | 22 |
| 273d | dudukos | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 273d |  stauffen | 215-239 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,456 | +$180 +12% | 24 |
| 273d | stauffen | 165-189 | SellNo86¢ → 0¢ | $1,456 | +$1,456 +100% | — |
| 273d | Sharmaji28 | 190-214 | SellYes72¢ → 0¢ | $1,011 | +$1,011 +100% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 15 12:00 PM ET to January 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 165-189 means the market gives it about 100%.