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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90-114 | 100% | +54 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −37 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −21 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 268d |  666maga | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,598 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 268d |  ThereIsntABubble | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,195 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 268d | wokerjoesleeper | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,270 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 268d | Bwin0p | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,111 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 268d | Horrible-Engagement | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,238 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 268d |  Lumi5 | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,216 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 268d |  beno1cH | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,386 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 268d |  KARMASUR | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,163 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 268d | EarthKoed | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,001 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 268d | Frigid-BlouseNew account | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,282 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 268d |  stauffen | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,204 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 268d | capib | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,014 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 268d | 0x59BA | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 268d | fedeaaajlp | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,666 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 268d | 0x265f…a448 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,246 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 268d | onekey09 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,531 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | Ara00 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,109 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 268d |  PredictionYogi | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,992 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | LeyJamesO | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,216 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | JamesFeng | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,495 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | whitewash | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,118 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 268d | DegenEriccro | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,247 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 268d | Houdray | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,681 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | PredictionYogi4 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $13,301 | +$256 +1.9% | 21 |
| 268d |  Mei-ji | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,085 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 268d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,230 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 268d | Mei-ji | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,198 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 268d |  Gustav42 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,411 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 268d | Gustav43 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $21,949 | +$342 +1.6% | 20 |
| 268d | Song00 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,713 | −$11 −0.4% | — |
| 268d | KARMASUR | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,564 | +$15 +0.6% | 20 |
| 268d | Tv12345 | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,012 | +$18 +0.6% | 20 |
| 268d | cucuruzblindat | 90-114 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,191 | −$10 −0.8% | — |
| 268d |  500AndADream3 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$134 +1.3% | 20 |
| 268d | Horrible-Engagement | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,232 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 268d | shok1 | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,178 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 268d | Oxford-Alpha-Fund | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$17 +0.6% | 20 |
| 268d | KARMASUR | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,942 | +$107 +1.1% | 20 |
| 268d | forestk | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,834 | +$36 +1.3% | 20 |
| 268d | influenz.eth | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,972 | +$28 +1.4% | 20 |
| 268d | KARMASUR | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,754 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | 0x59BA | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | Cel00 | 90-114 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,355 | +$17 +1.3% | 20 |
| 268d |  dyIam | 90-114 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,055 | −$39 −3.7% | — |
| 268d | Sgtruf | 90-114 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,719 | +$108 +1.9% | 21 |
| 268d | LightYagami.D | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,413 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 268d | Oxford-Alpha-Fund | 90-114 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$42 +2.1% | 21 |
| 268d | capitollights | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,993 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 268d | beno1cH | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,385 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | Frigid-BlouseNew account | 90-114 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,244 | +$40 +3.2% | 22 |
| 268d | Thin-Print | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,130 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 268d | Thin-Print | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,658 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 268d | trenoko | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,801 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 268d | 666maga | 90-114 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,552 | +$48 +3.1% | 21 |
| 268d | beatyesterday2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $13,900 | +$736 +5.3% | 21 |
| 268d | beatyesterday | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,009 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 269d |  eI0zwvzk | 115-139 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,502 | +$95 +2.7% | 21 |
| 269d | 500AndADream | 115-139 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$72 +4.8% | 22 |
| 269d | TomFeng | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,388 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 269d | LightYagami.D | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,413 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
jiusan4,444 shares
huaizhong3,988 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 19 12:00 PM ET to January 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 90-114 means the market gives it about 100%.