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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 380-399 | 100% | +81 pts | +98 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −42 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | −28 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | −7 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | −1 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | 0 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | 0 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580-599 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-619 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 620-639 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 640-659 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 660-679 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 680-699 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 700-719 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 720-739 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 740+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 262d | Iacob | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,095 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | vvvine | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,223 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | qochar | 480-499 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,031 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | sachin5868 | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,213 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 480-499 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,005 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | CryptoCamm | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,175 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 262d |  Gabbers | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,410 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | SuperBet69 | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,174 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | FakeX | 420-439 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,643 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 262d |  NightOwlX | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,425 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | Icannotwin | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,434 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | Fredthecat | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,267 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 262d | whitewash | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,160 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 263d | therooroo | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,690 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 263d | Poiuztrewq | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,298 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 263d | bnone | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,631 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 263d | Hospitable-Equinox | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,577 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 263d | sachin5868 | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,213 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d | cucuruzblindat | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,063 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 263d | alwaysloser | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,354 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 263d | Tremendous-Chorus | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,036 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 263d |  stauffen | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,034 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 263d |  Lumi5 | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,162 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 263d | besmart2025 | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,881 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 263d | Linear-EcclesiaNew account | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,945 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 263d | 0x265f…a448 | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,094 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 263d | dudukos5 fills | 380-399 | SellYes69¢ → 100¢ | $6,812 | −$3,008 −44% | — |
| 263d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,000 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d |  Prexpect8 fills | 380-399 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $26,897 | +$356 +1.3% | 20 |
| 263d |  BoringPunter | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,659 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d | Poory | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,991 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d | Tv12345 | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d |  Annica | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,982 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d | irbisSS | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,330 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d | DM7622 | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,304 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d | LuckyPaul | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,598 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d |  BergelBanned | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,656 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 263d |  Ceirox | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,086 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 263d |  HowToBasic2 fills | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,000 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d |  PredictionYogi | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,007 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d | mintchocolate | 420-439 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,109 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 263d | Willex | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,070 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 263d | Ashurnasirpal2 fills | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,588 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 263d |  Gustav44 fills | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $23,045 | +$61 +0.3% | 20 |
| 263d | Gustav42 fills | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $20,939 | +$96 +0.5% | 20 |
| 263d | mintcho | 420-439 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,003 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 263d | Sukasushi | 380-399 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,114 | −$12 −1.1% | — |
| 263d | vvvine | 380-399 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,211 | +$13 +1.1% | 20 |
| 263d |  Archeroon2 fills | 380-399 | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $4,359 | −$828 −19% | — |
| 263d | geraldhew89 | 400-419 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$51 +1.0% | 20 |
| 263d |  vlkv.junior | 380-399 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,058 | −$124 −4.0% | — |
| 263d |  dingdangcat | 420-439 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,803 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 263d | Hospitable-Equinox | 400-419 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,528 | +$51 +3.3% | 22 |
| 263d | geraldhew89 | 380-399 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$111 +2.2% | 21 |
| 263d |  KARMASUR | 400-419 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,069 | +$188 +3.1% | 21 |
| 263d | goalpost | 400-419 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,226 | +$39 +3.2% | 21 |
| 263d | Gustav4 | 420-439 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,270 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 263d | bigbroN | 400-419 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$54 +5.4% | 22 |
| 263d | Oxford-Alpha-Fund | 380-399 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $23,160 | +$605 +2.6% | 21 |
| 263d | besmart2025 | 420-439 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,553 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 20 12:00 PM ET to January 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 380-399 means the market gives it about 100%.