Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 380-399 | 100% | +63 pts | +94 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −4 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −19 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −34 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −25 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −36 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −26 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | −11 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | −3 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | −1 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580-599 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-619 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 620-639 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 640-659 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 660-679 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 680-699 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 700-719 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 720-739 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 740+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 259d | Shallow-Actor | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,113 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | mintchocolate | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,238 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  stauffen | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,286 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  Fablurou | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,349 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  BergelBanned | 440-459 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,199 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  web3player | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,419 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Iacob | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,795 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Johnny31Q | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,379 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  Elonurmom | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,578 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Wise-Basil | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,456 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  Wahhdahhhellielon | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,452 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Bleepo | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,771 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Sukasushi | 420-439 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,358 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Sukasushi | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,763 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Icannotwin | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,783 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Poiuztrewq | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,299 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Clockworks | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,810 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  crvAlex | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,583 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | 0x265f…a448 | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,707 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | DegenEriccro | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,735 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | geraldhew89 | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,518 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Scary-InstrumentNew account | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,584 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  BulishBlox | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,519 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Strong-Effacement | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,293 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  PredictionYogi5 fills | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,085 | +$57 +0.4% | 20 |
| 259d |  Annica2 fills | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $27,480 | +$31 +0.1% | 20 |
| 259d |  AlexTiger | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,733 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 259d | Houdray4 fills | 380-399 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $17,474 | +$108 +0.6% | 20 |
| 259d | stakeholder | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,458 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 259d |  niitoxyz | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,798 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 259d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,000 | +$22 +0.2% | 20 |
| 259d | VinceDelaney | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,290 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 259d | geraldhew894 fills | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,000 | +$39 +0.4% | 20 |
| 259d |  OVOXOSM | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,301 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 259d |  Gustav42 fills | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $31,761 | +$142 +0.4% | 20 |
| 259d | mmdkrr | 380-399 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,203 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 259d |  LinaBell🦊 | 380-399 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,307 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 259d | Gustav44 fills | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $48,840 | −$49 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | OVOXOSM | 380-399 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,520 | −$11 −0.7% | — |
| 259d |  Gabbers | 380-399 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,142 | −$19 −0.6% | — |
| 259d |  toufik-la-moula | 400-419 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | −$6 −0.6% | — |
| 259d | LinaBell🦊2 fills | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,105 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | AlexTiger2 fills | 380-399 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,805 | +$29 +0.8% | 20 |
| 259d | lvshang | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,645 | +$16 +0.4% | 20 |
| 259d | ibb1x2 | 380-399 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,770 | −$168 −1.4% | — |
| 259d | Bankrupt-Loser | 400-419 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,102 | +$125 +0.9% | 20 |
| 259d | bnzl | 380-399 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,118 | +$14 +1.2% | 20 |
| 259d | Rahma25 | 380-399 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,082 | −$15 −1.4% | — |
| 259d | rektgirl | 400-419 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,310 | −$20 −1.5% | — |
| 259d | rated3 fills | 420-439 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,143 | +$35 +1.1% | 20 |
| 259d | luckyshoe | 380-399 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,433 | +$50 +2.0% | 21 |
| 259d | OVOXOSM | 380-399 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$31 +2.1% | 21 |
| 259d | Annica3 fills | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,815 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 259d |  kejsi | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,053 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | lqI | 380-399 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $11,469 | +$241 +2.1% | 21 |
| 259d | Amusing-Guinea2 fills | 360-379 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,502 | −$298 −12% | — |
| 259d | forestk | 380-399 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,651 | +$123 +3.4% | 21 |
| 259d | Gabbers | 380-399 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,852 | +$95 +5.2% | 22 |
| 259d | ppobb1123 | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,168 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Stinkers777 | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,072 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 23 12:00 PM ET to January 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 380-399 means the market gives it about 100%.