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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +43 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −31 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −19 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 261d | Ara00 | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,180 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 261d | whitewash | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,658 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 261d | samponcuochi | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,120 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 261d |  Gabbers | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,799 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 261d |  stauffen | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,258 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 261d | 35Ti | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,847 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 261d | Fredthecat | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,165 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 261d | tomorrowbtc25 | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,013 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 261d | Shallow-Actor | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,865 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 261d | Collion | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,038 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 261d | FakeX | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,010 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 261d | Sukasushi | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,615 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 261d | Amusing-Guinea | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,531 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 261d | Hospitable-Equinox | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,696 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 261d | Houdray2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $11,275 | +$547 +4.9% | 22 |
| 261d |  LastHands2 fills | 90-114 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,057 | −$65 −2.1% | — |
| 261d |  PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,353 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 261d | Oxford-Alpha-Fund2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $23,933 | +$43 +0.2% | 20 |
| 261d | win-win-win992 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,960 | +$40 +0.4% | 20 |
| 261d | onekey09 | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,726 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 261d |  Gustav43 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,590 | +$97 +0.8% | 20 |
| 261d | 0x265f…a4482 fills | 65-89 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,638 | −$262 −10.0% | — |
| 261d | FakeX | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,000 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 261d | influenz.eth | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,737 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 261d | Gustav42 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,275 | +$45 +2.0% | 21 |
| 261d | shok1 | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,419 | +$12 +0.9% | 20 |
| 261d | forestk | 65-89 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,651 | −$52 −1.4% | — |
| 261d | DegenEriccro | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,133 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 261d | Konium | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,273 | +$34 +1.0% | 20 |
| 261d |  the-elonmusk-master | 65-89 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,326 | −$23 −1.7% | — |
| 261d | Kurai | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | +$21 +2.0% | 21 |
| 261d | Kurai | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,044 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 261d | FAITH7 | 65-89 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | −$44 −4.0% | — |
| 261d |  Annica2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $3,847 | +$335 +8.7% | 23 |
| 261d |  MyomEverwind | 65-89 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,423 | −$57 −4.0% | — |
| 261d | LastHands2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,910 | +$212 +7.3% | 22 |
| 261d |  Archeroon | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,278 | +$134 +4.1% | 21 |
| 261d | Enraged-MonkNew account | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,397 | +$54 +3.9% | 22 |
| 261d | Enraged-MonkNew account | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,397 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 261d | Gabbers | 65-89 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,947 | +$188 +6.4% | 22 |
| 261d |  500AndADream3 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,000 | +$47 +0.4% | 20 |
| 261d | Hospitable-Equinox | 65-89 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,478 | +$221 +15% | 27 |
| 262d | samponcudinti | 65-89 | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,173 | −$339 −29% | — |
| 262d |  OVOXOSM | 65-89 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$422 +28% | 27 |
| 262d | klxx | 65-89 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,740 | −$446 −26% | — |
| 262d | forestk | 65-89 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $3,205 | +$497 +16% | 24 |
| 262d | Archeroon | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,072 | +$23 +0.7% | 20 |
| 262d | berserko | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,457 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 262d | samponcudinti | 65-89 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,069 | +$288 +27% | 27 |
| 262d | Kurai | 115-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,025 | +$20 +1.9% | 21 |
| 262d | ibb1x22 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes54¢ → 100¢ | $2,510 | +$2,161 +86% | 25 |
| 262d | ibb1x2 | 90-114 | SellYes18¢ → 0¢ | $1,438 | +$1,438 +100% | — |
| 262d | startermax | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,495 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 262d | 0x3dA304b247F16E | 65-89 | BuyYes61¢ → 100¢ | $2,529 | +$1,592 +63% | 30 |
| 262d |  flow-trader-at-optiver | 115-139 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,086 | +$88 +4.2% | 21 |
| 262d | flow-trader-at-optiver | 90-114 | BuyNo63¢ → 100¢ | $1,372 | +$801 +58% | 30 |
| 262d | flow-trader-at-optiver | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,171 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 262d | Collion | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,431 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 262d | plsd23 | 90-114 | SellNo61¢ → 100¢ | $1,520 | −$980 −65% | — |
| 262d | klxx | 65-89 | BuyYes63¢ → 100¢ | $1,378 | +$807 +59% | 28 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 26 12:00 PM ET to January 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.