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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115-139 | 100% | +47 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −30 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −15 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 258d |  crvAlex | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,535 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 258d |  OVOXOSM | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,052 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 258d | LIQUID8dCAP | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $12,211 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 258d | Shallow-Actor | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,489 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 258d | imjustkim | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,456 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | 0x265f…a448 | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,594 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Scary-InstrumentNew account | 115-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,666 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  stauffen | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,157 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  PredictionYogi | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,872 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 259d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,064 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 259d |  BoringPunter | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,373 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 259d | sachin5868 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,861 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 259d |  Wahhdahhhellielon | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,536 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 259d |  Gustav44 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $26,571 | +$174 +0.7% | 20 |
| 259d |  eI0zwvzk | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,982 | +$21 +0.2% | 20 |
| 259d |  LinaBell🦊 | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,989 | +$21 +0.3% | 20 |
| 259d | win-win-win992 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,688 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 259d | LinaBell🦊2 fills | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $12,210 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | iipera | 115-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,878 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 259d |  Suhaslb94 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,238 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 259d | wordofaffirmation | 140-164 | BuyNo100¢ | $3,984 | +$20 +0.5% | 20 |
| 259d | yaojianqiang | 140-164 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,990 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 259d | 0xf6d3…ae43 | 115-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,759 | +$11 +0.6% | 20 |
| 259d | Gustav43 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,865 | +$79 +1.6% | 21 |
| 259d |  LastHands2 fills | 115-139 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,138 | +$151 +2.5% | 21 |
| 259d |  MyomEverwind | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,924 | +$35 +1.2% | 20 |
| 259d | LastHands | 115-139 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,088 | −$81 −2.6% | — |
| 259d | Ara00 | 115-139 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,372 | −$42 −3.1% | — |
| 259d | whitewash | 115-139 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,505 | −$83 −5.5% | — |
| 259d | win-win-win99 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | cryptoverse | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,096 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  PumpThePompey | 140-164 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,440 | +$271 +5.0% | 22 |
| 259d |  jieu | 115-139 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,748 | +$173 +9.9% | 23 |
| 259d | influenz.eth | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,428 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 259d | omegonx | 140-164 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $5,699 | −$656 −12% | — |
| 259d |  ThereIsntABubble | 115-139 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | −$200 −11% | — |
| 259d | mintcho | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,597 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | eI0zwvzk | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,991 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  Sz1t | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,065 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  KARMASUR2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $7,138 | +$428 +6.0% | 22 |
| 259d | crvAlex | 115-139 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,458 | +$78 +5.4% | 22 |
| 259d | win-win-win992 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,815 | +$154 +4.0% | 21 |
| 259d | beatyesterday | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$159 +4.0% | 21 |
| 259d | GodPlsSaveMe2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $2,630 | +$502 +19% | 25 |
| 259d | omegonx | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,256 | +$30 +1.3% | 20 |
| 259d | Shallow-Actor | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,456 | +$36 +1.5% | 21 |
| 259d | 0x265f…a448 | 115-139 | BuyYes56¢ → 100¢ | $1,396 | +$1,104 +79% | 30 |
| 259d | imjustkim | 140-164 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,364 | +$36 +2.7% | 21 |
| 259d | LIQUID8dCAP3 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$615 +6.1% | 22 |
| 259d |  Richgoddess22 fills | 90-114 | SellNo68¢ → 100¢ | $2,714 | −$1,267 −47% | — |
| 259d | DM7622 | 140-164 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,332 | +$56 +4.2% | 21 |
| 259d | sachin5868 | 140-164 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,368 | +$72 +5.3% | 22 |
| 259d | Suhaslb94 | 140-164 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,180 | +$62 +5.3% | 22 |
| 259d | Suhaslb94 | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,180 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 259d |  junseokletsg0 | 90-114 | BuyYes34¢ → 0¢ | $1,189 | −$1,189 −100% | 29 |
| 259d |  SANDWHALE123 | 140-164 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,403 | +$95 +6.7% | 22 |
| 259d | martinlim | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,015 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | Loose-Trouble | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,222 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 259d | lvshang | 165-189 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$78 +1.6% | 20 |
| 259d | Houdray | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
Lokitsoojoo4 shares
JaylenBrownRightHand500 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 29 12:00 PM ET to January 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 115-139 means the market gives it about 100%.