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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +43 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −23 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 256d | danimoreno.rl | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,815 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 256d |  Lumi5 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,555 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | iipera | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,432 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | iipera | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,439 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 256d |  Luninu | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,180 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 257d |  TequilaSunrise12 | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,014 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 257d | Tasty-BalconyNew account | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,032 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 257d | benjistan | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,273 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 257d | seaborgiumteen | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,205 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 257d | cucuruzblindat | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,038 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 257d |  Annica | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 257d | gutsuchamp | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,076 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 257d |  Gustav45 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $8,388 | +$326 +3.9% | 21 |
| 257d |  PredictionYogi5 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $10,368 | +$974 +9.4% | 23 |
| 257d | bigmoneylfg | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,638 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 257d | Oxford-Alpha-Fund | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,984 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 257d | Oxford-Alpha-Fund3 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,237 | +$28 +0.2% | 20 |
| 257d | influenz.eth4 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,324 | +$172 +2.4% | 21 |
| 257d | Bankrupt-Loser2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,944 | +$85 +0.9% | 20 |
| 257d | Bankrupt-Loser | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,944 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 257d |  ThereIsntABubble | 65-89 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,084 | −$16 −1.5% | — |
| 257d | bigmoneylfg | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,610 | +$34 +1.3% | 20 |
| 257d | ThereIsntABubble | 65-89 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,082 | +$18 +1.6% | 21 |
| 257d | iipera | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,400 | +$42 +1.2% | 20 |
| 257d | forestk | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,774 | +$47 +1.2% | 20 |
| 257d | LIQUID8dCAP | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$71 +2.4% | 21 |
| 257d | dovattia | 65-89 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,450 | −$88 −6.0% | — |
| 257d | konkret | 65-89 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,034 | −$68 −6.5% | — |
| 257d | seaborgiumteen | 65-89 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,113 | +$94 +4.5% | 21 |
| 257d | Annica4 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $15,507 | +$3,023 +19% | 25 |
| 257d | Batmanwing | 90-114 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$125 +6.2% | 22 |
| 257d |  BadGamblr | 65-89 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,050 | −$293 −14% | — |
| 257d |  flow-trader-at-optiver | 90-114 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,898 | +$297 +10% | 23 |
| 257d | flow-trader-at-optiver | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,189 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 257d | influenz.eth2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,271 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 257d | Gustav4 | 90-114 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | +$139 +14% | 24 |
| 257d |  abeltesfaye | 65-89 | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,028 | −$185 −18% | — |
| 257d | AlexPro | 90-114 | BuyYes23¢ → 0¢ | $1,775 | −$1,775 −100% | 33 |
| 257d | Annica | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $19,112 | −$19 −0.1% | — |
| 257d | Annica2 fills | 90-114 | BuyYes10¢ → 0¢ | $27,168 | −$27,168 −100% | 55 |
| 257d | elsonfan | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,137 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 257d | Gamble82 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $13,062 | +$3,105 +24% | 26 |
| 257d | danimoreno.rl | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,809 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 257d | gutsuchamp | 65-89 | BuyYes44¢ → 100¢ | $1,371 | +$1,712 +125% | 30 |
| 257d | gutsuchamp | 115-139 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,371 | −$15 −1.1% | — |
| 257d | Gamble8 | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,895 | +$46 +1.2% | 20 |
| 257d | volume1 | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,094 | +$26 +1.2% | 20 |
| 257d |  Richgoddess2 | 65-89 | SellNo65¢ → 0¢ | $1,344 | +$1,344 +100% | — |
| 257d | imjustkim | 115-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,050 | +$85 +2.1% | 21 |
| 257d | beatyesterday | 115-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$101 +2.5% | 21 |
| 257d | Irondo | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,482 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 257d | lordkollynu | 115-139 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,117 | −$36 −3.2% | — |
| 257d | omegonx | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,439 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 257d | Maimai33 | 115-139 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | −$35 −3.3% | — |
| 257d | Lumi53 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $7,216 | +$347 +4.8% | 21 |
| 257d | LIQUID8dCAP | 115-139 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,505 | +$87 +3.5% | 21 |
| 257d | Collion | 190-214 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,063 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 257d | Annica2 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,962 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 257d | Luninu | 115-139 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,139 | +$43 +3.8% | 21 |
| 257d | Maimai33 | 115-139 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,070 | +$40 +3.7% | 21 |
MrLucker2,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 31 12:00 PM ET to February 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.