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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 540-559 | 100% | +81 pts | +94 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | −1 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | −5 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | −40 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | −38 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 276d | plsd23 | 560-579 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,922 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | dudukos3 fills | 540-559 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,820 | −$177 −3.0% | — |
| 276d |  LordYeah | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,798 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  shortguy | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,731 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | LazyWanker2 fills | 540-559 | SellYes51¢ → 100¢ | $4,595 | −$4,422 −96% | — |
| 276d | Hexagon555 | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,244 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  Rex416 | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,109 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | Fredthecat | 580+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,032 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | changelifez | 580+ | SellNo>99¢ | $4,968 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  Fablurou | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,537 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  BidenFan | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | Skiys | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,013 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | Poiuztrewq | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,128 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | Scaly-Configuration | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,335 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  pleasepapaelonimkindahomeless | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,023 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | PacDevil | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,750 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | labuba | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,400 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 276d |  HappyCheeseburger | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,379 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | cryptomayhem2 fills | 560-579 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,916 | −$225 −7.7% | — |
| 276d |  Vivalavidaaaaa | 560-579 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,526 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | DA-ZhenRu | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,092 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | geraldhew89 | 560-579 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,507 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | 0x265f…a448 | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,150 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 276d | kobie32 fills | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $62,738 | +$83 +0.1% | 20 |
| 276d | 7G-MAN | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,312 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 276d |  KARMASUR | 540-559 | BuyYes>99¢ | $48,599 | +$49 +0.1% | 20 |
| 276d | bigmoneylfg | 540-559 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,771 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 276d | cigarettes | 560-579 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,485 | +$15 +1.0% | 20 |
| 276d | venezuelain | 540-559 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,491 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 276d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 540-559 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,000 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 276d |  badmoshbillu | 540-559 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,885 | +$19 +0.3% | 20 |
| 276d |  x0000 | 540-559 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,294 | +$30 +2.3% | 20 |
| 276d | necristiro | 540-559 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,099 | +$24 +2.2% | 21 |
| 276d |  Prexpect | 560-579 | SellYes19¢ → 0¢ | $1,004 | +$1,004 +100% | — |
| 276d |  Gustav4 | 560-579 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,621 | +$383 +24% | 26 |
| 276d |  Annica | 580+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $46,593 | +$47 +0.1% | 20 |
| 276d | SuperBet69 | 560-579 | BuyYes79¢ → 0¢ | $1,878 | −$1,878 −100% | 27 |
| 276d |  DontGambleKidsPls | 580+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,049 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 276d | FortisFortunaAdiuvat | 540-559 | BuyNo85¢ → 0¢ | $1,354 | −$1,354 −100% | 25 |
| 276d |  jesterthegoose | 560-579 | BuyYes70¢ → 0¢ | $1,367 | −$1,367 −100% | 30 |
| 276d |  ElonSpam2 fills | 580+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,046 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 276d |  PredictionYogi | 580+ | SellNo>99¢ | $10,172 | −$31 −0.3% | — |
| 276d | Poory | 580+ | SellNo>99¢ | $5,988 | −$12 −0.2% | — |
| 276d | sterlok | 580+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,732 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 276d |  ExperimentalDude | 580+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,108 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 276d | Gustav42 fills | 580+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $16,465 | +$84 +0.5% | 20 |
| 276d | urals | 580+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,508 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 276d | LazyWanker2 fills | 560-579 | SellYes36¢ → 0¢ | $2,183 | +$2,183 +100% | — |
| 276d | Whopping-PrizeNew account | 540-559 | SellNo54¢ → 0¢ | $1,037 | +$1,037 +100% | — |
| 276d |  AlexTiger | 540-559 | SellNo71¢ → 0¢ | $1,155 | +$1,155 +100% | — |
| 276d | Scaly-Configuration | 560-579 | BuyYes79¢ → 0¢ | $3,115 | −$3,115 −100% | 27 |
| 276d | cigarettes | 580+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,280 | +$40 +3.1% | 21 |
| 276d | cigarettes | 540-559 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $1,056 | −$1,056 −100% | 27 |
| 276d | Trusting-Running | 560-579 | BuyYes79¢ → 0¢ | $2,458 | −$2,458 −100% | 27 |
| 276d | jesterthegoose2 fills | 540-559 | BuyNo77¢ → 0¢ | $3,769 | −$3,769 −100% | 28 |
| 276d | Annica | 560-579 | BuyYes69¢ → 0¢ | $1,518 | −$1,518 −100% | 30 |
| 276d | SuperBet69 | 580+ | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,985 | −$61 −3.1% | — |
| 276d | LazyWanker | 560-579 | BuyYes58¢ → 0¢ | $1,774 | −$1,774 −100% | 30 |
| 276d | Kone168 | 580+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,045 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 276d | Gustav4 | 560-579 | BuyYes47¢ → 0¢ | $1,159 | −$1,159 −100% | 30 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 6 12:00 PM ET to January 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 540-559 means the market gives it about 100%.