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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 540-559 | 100% | +80 pts | +90 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | −3 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −7 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | −11 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | −5 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | −2 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | −4 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | −22 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | −31 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | −7 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | −3 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 273d | plsd23 | 520-539 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 273d | 0xe28f…be21 | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,345 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 274d | xyzbstuv5 fills | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $20,574 | −$21 −0.1% | — |
| 274d |  trix. | 560-579 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,071 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 274d |  dingdangcat | 560-579 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,492 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 274d |  Elonurmom | 560-579 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,564 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 274d |  guy5050 | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,480 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 274d |  pleasepapaelonimkindahomeless | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,554 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 274d | 0X12356 | 560-579 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,433 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 274d |  1000Usdt | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,973 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 274d | therooroo | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,141 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 274d | Toporceanu | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,824 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 274d |  ThereIsntABubble | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,298 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 274d |  BidenFan | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 274d | 0x265f…a448 | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,540 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 274d | LLLivesky | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,029 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 274d | capib | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,048 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 274d | Fredthecat | 540-559 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,631 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 274d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 540-559 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,089 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | Wataaa | 540-559 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,929 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | Fair-Tan | 540-559 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,097 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d |  Frontrunners | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,508 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d |  lolboy4D | 540-559 | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,425 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | Wicked-Mayonnaise | 540-559 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,370 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 274d |  kejsi | 520-539 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,087 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 274d | anciente | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 274d |  badmoshbillu | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,004 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | 7G-MAN2 fills | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,974 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 274d | geraldhew89 | 540-559 | BuyYes>99¢ | $23,616 | +$28 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d |  LuckyLeif | 540-559 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,936 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 274d | Laurenman2 fills | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,671 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 |
| 274d | pol76 | 540-559 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,714 | +$26 +0.3% | 20 |
| 274d |  PredictionYogi | 540-559 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,413 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 274d |  Naichli | 540-559 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,460 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 274d | whitewash | 540-559 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,343 | −$14 −1.1% | — |
| 274d |  yangleduoduo | 540-559 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,444 | −$57 −1.3% | — |
| 274d |  AlexTiger | 520-539 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,844 | −$19 −1.0% | — |
| 274d |  ghostfaded | 540-559 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,182 | −$29 −2.5% | — |
| 274d | Yuki7 | 540-559 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,877 | +$25 +0.3% | 20 |
| 274d | Toporceanu2 fills | 540-559 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,525 | +$302 +12% | 24 |
| 274d | Cel00 | 540-559 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,401 | +$12 +0.5% | 20 |
| 274d |  AntiCx | 540-559 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,225 | +$9 +0.4% | 20 |
| 274d |  Annica3 fills | 540-559 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $10,137 | +$970 +9.6% | 23 |
| 274d |  Prexpect | 540-559 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $25,584 | +$1,016 +4.0% | 21 |
| 274d |  Gustav4 | 540-559 | BuyYes>99¢ | $24,933 | +$67 +0.3% | 20 |
| 274d |  ggmggn | 520-539 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $23,939 | +$928 +3.9% | 21 |
| 274d | sb911 | 540-559 | SellYes72¢ → 100¢ | $2,151 | −$849 −39% | — |
| 274d | GUIREmethod | 580+ | SellNo>99¢ | $24,975 | −$25 −0.1% | — |
| 274d | Tipsterman | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d |  CertifiedCRY | 520-539 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,587 | +$299 +12% | 23 |
| 274d | Annica | 540-559 | SellYes71¢ → 100¢ | $2,715 | −$1,130 −42% | — |
| 274d |  Hardline | 540-559 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | +$378 +35% | 29 |
| 274d | Gustav4 | 520-539 | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,356 | +$644 +47% | 30 |
| 274d | 0x265f…a448 | 520-539 | SellYes85¢ → 0¢ | $3,408 | +$3,408 +100% | — |
| 274d | Flancho | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,555 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | cripes3 | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,451 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d |  BoringPunter2 fills | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,975 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | geraldhew894 fills | 560-579 | BuyNo>99¢ | $40,000 | +$194 +0.5% | 20 |
| 274d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 560-579 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $6,183 | +$238 +3.8% | 21 |
| 274d | Gustav46 fills | 560-579 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,195 | +$261 +1.4% | 20 |
C17H21NO444,967 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 9 12:00 PM ET to January 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 540-559 means the market gives it about 100%.