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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180–194 | 100% | +58 pts | +86 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <90 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90–104 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 105–119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120–134 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 135–149 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 150–164 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165–179 | 0% | −26 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 195–209 | 0% | −38 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 210–224 | 0% | −7 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 225–239 | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240–254 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 255+ | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 455d | Noster24 | 180–194 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,298 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 455d | Poory | 180–194 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,047 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 455d | wokerjoesleeper | 180–194 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,563 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 455d |  AgricultureSecretary | 195–209 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,490 | −$11 −0.7% | — |
| 455d |  catasus | 180–194 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 455d |  Naichli2 fills | 180–194 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,703 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 455d | timler | 180–194 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 455d |  Gustav4 | 180–194 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,556 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 455d | TinyKate | 180–194 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,986 | −$14 −0.5% | — |
| 455d | 0x265f…a448 | 180–194 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,421 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 455d | Meshugaman | 180–194 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,196 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 455d |  OuchMyBalls | 180–194 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,991 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 455d | Poiuztrewq | 180–194 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,009 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 456d | glarity | 180–194 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,977 | +$40 +1.0% | 20 |
| 456d | willi98 | 180–194 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,885 | +$19 +1.0% | 20 |
| 456d |  betwick | 180–194 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,723 | +$35 +2.0% | 20 |
| 456d |  MBB3 | 180–194 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,454 | +$45 +3.1% | 20 |
| 456d |  1sk | 180–194 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,411 | +$157 +11% | 20 |
| 456d | AlexPro | 180–194 | BuyNo66¢ → 0¢ | $6,581 | −$6,581 −100% | 20 |
| 456d | Naichli3 fills | 180–194 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $8,196 | +$2,275 +28% | 20 |
| 456d |  Mester | 180–194 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $2,498 | +$626 +25% | 20 |
| 456d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 456d |  ElonSpam2 fills | 180–194 | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $4,550 | +$1,808 +40% | 20 |
| 456d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 180–194 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $4,188 | +$1,160 +28% | 20 |
| 456d | cipherpilot | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,478 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 456d | AlexPro | 180–194 | BuyYes60¢ → 100¢ | $2,447 | +$1,631 +67% | 20 |
| 456d |  Elonurmom | 195–209 | SellYes40¢ → 0¢ | $1,383 | +$1,383 +100% | — |
| 456d | astromage | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,274 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 456d | SaylorMoon | 180–194 | BuyYes58¢ → 100¢ | $2,529 | +$1,836 +73% | 20 |
| 456d | leiger2 fills | 210–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,678 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 456d | Meshugaman | 180–194 | BuyYes49¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | +$1,121 +104% | 20 |
| 456d |  CannaDough | 195–209 | SellYes51¢ → 0¢ | $1,043 | +$1,043 +100% | — |
| 456d | aimerror | 180–194 | BuyNo83¢ → 0¢ | $1,950 | −$1,950 −100% | 20 |
| 456d | SaylorMoon | 195–209 | BuyNo34¢ → 100¢ | $2,578 | +$5,005 +194% | 23 |
| 456d | rev169 | 210–224 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,500 | +$25 +0.7% | 20 |
| 456d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 180–194 | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $3,360 | −$3,360 −100% | 20 |
| 456d |  Oompah..Loompah2 fills | 180–194 | BuyNo61¢ → 0¢ | $2,941 | −$2,941 −100% | 20 |
| 456d | shardiv | 210–224 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$90 +2.3% | 20 |
| 456d | Fuzzy-Peace | 180–194 | BuyNo72¢ → 0¢ | $2,193 | −$2,193 −100% | 20 |
| 456d |  FelonMusk | 180–194 | BuyNo69¢ → 0¢ | $1,554 | −$1,554 −100% | 20 |
| 456d | Gang172 | 180–194 | BuyNo67¢ → 0¢ | $1,340 | −$1,340 −100% | 20 |
| 456d | simaman | 180–194 | BuyNo73¢ → 0¢ | $1,085 | −$1,085 −100% | 20 |
| 456d | Fuzzy-Peace | 180–194 | SellYes47¢ → 100¢ | $1,553 | −$1,749 −113% | — |
| 456d |  PotatMD | 195–209 | BuyYes56¢ → 0¢ | $2,724 | −$2,724 −100% | 20 |
| 456d | catasus | 180–194 | BuyYes56¢ → 100¢ | $1,067 | +$841 +79% | 20 |
| 456d | PotatMD | 180–194 | SellYes49¢ → 100¢ | $2,185 | −$2,299 −105% | — |
| 456d | zeus76 | 180–194 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$250 +25% | 20 |
| 456d | ElonSpam2 fills | 225–239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,852 | +$87 +0.6% | 20 |
| 456d | glarity | 240–254 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,751 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 456d | chocolate1232 fills | 255+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,606 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 456d | glarity | 180–194 | SellNo72¢ → 0¢ | $1,598 | +$1,598 +100% | — |
| 456d |  thefakenick | 240–254 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | +$7 +0.7% | 20 |
| 456d | ElonSpam10 fills | 255+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $23,678 | +$248 +1.0% | 20 |
| 456d | ElonSpam | 180–194 | SellYes25¢ → 100¢ | $1,005 | −$2,995 −298% | — |
| 456d | glarity | 180–194 | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $3,500 | −$3,500 −100% | 30 |
| 456d | ElonSpam2 fills | 165–179 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $15,032 | +$564 +3.8% | 20 |
| 456d | 0x82c6c1a53290fba0c7a18fc40d2c9206f03f2e5 | 165–179 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,957 | −$17 −0.9% | — |
| 456d | astromage2 fills | 255+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,245 | +$22 +0.3% | 20 |
| 457d | leiger | 255+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,564 | +$46 +0.7% | 20 |
| 457d | Poll67 | 165–179 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | −$13 −1.0% | — |
FelonMusk2,252 shares
sy0411,127 shares
chensoft863 shares
KekusMaximus760 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between July 11, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and July 18, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 180–194 means the market gives it about 100%.