Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 100% | +39 pts | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −19 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −30 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −4 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −1 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70d | d008 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,027 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 70d | 0xa67b…af43 | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,028 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 70d | Exciting-Hat-Vegetarian | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,263 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 70d |  Prexpect | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,073 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 70d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,071 | +$61 +0.5% | 20 |
| 70d | Jasonzz | 180-199 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,225 | −$11 −0.9% | — |
| 70d | onekey02 | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,119 | +$72 +1.0% | 20 |
| 70d |  upont2 fills | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,471 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 70d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,895 | +$29 +1.5% | 21 |
| 70d |  PredictionYogi | 180-199 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,247 | +$39 +3.1% | 21 |
| 71d | s777s | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,041 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 71d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,339 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 71d | Amir100013 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $6,130 | +$166 +2.7% | 21 |
| 71d | AnonymousPerson2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,490 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 71d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 71d | anon.1980.123 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,677 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 71d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,892 | −$11 −0.6% | — |
| 71d | 0x1d94…80da2 fills | 220-239 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,803 | −$278 −5.8% | — |
| 71d | BinaryBaron4 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,513 | +$28 +0.1% | 20 |
| 71d | carboyant | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,912 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 71d | CakeBake2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,309 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 71d | Marsache | 220-239 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,533 | −$9 −0.6% | — |
| 71d | pingfan666 | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,391 | +$10 +0.7% | 20 |
| 71d | nbjui1 | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,412 | +$12 +0.8% | 20 |
| 71d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,880 | +$23 +1.2% | 20 |
| 71d | 0x1d94…80da | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,844 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 71d | s777s | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$43 +2.1% | 21 |
| 71d | Adorable-Initial | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$41 +0.4% | 20 |
| 71d |  axelverse.sol | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 71d | ppwins | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,783 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 71d | Simmelariii | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,335 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 71d | NeoOracle | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,242 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 71d | Prexpect2 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,666 | +$23 +0.3% | 20 |
| 71d | pingfan666 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,508 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 71d | Vincent44230 | 160-179 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,130 | −$46 −4.0% | — |
| 71d | anon.1980.123 | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,398 | +$100 +2.3% | 21 |
| 71d | Amir10001 | 160-179 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,081 | +$64 +5.9% | 21 |
| 71d | Jasonzz3 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,003 | +$106 +1.3% | 20 |
| 71d | 0xdd16…901e | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,106 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 71d | Any-Success2 fills | 200-219 | SellNo48¢ → 100¢ | $4,319 | −$4,659 −108% | — |
| 71d | byteA | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,055 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 71d | Marsache3 fills | 180-199 | SellYes48¢ → 100¢ | $5,022 | −$5,536 −110% | — |
| 71d | nbjui1 | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,089 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 71d | suifeng668 | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,006 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 71d | 0xf14e…6173 | 160-179 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,183 | +$107 +9.0% | 21 |
| 72d | 0xB177dvgu7 | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,022 | +$18 +1.7% | 20 |
| 72d | 0xFd67277Fa638e39eaE6 | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,111 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 72d | pingfan666 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,854 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 72d | suifeng668 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,003 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 72d | suifeng668 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,652 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 72d | nbjui1 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,085 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 72d | bipbipbop | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,149 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 72d | Repulsive-Hit | 200-219 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,198 | +$195 +16% | 22 |
| 72d | BinaryBaron | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,127 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 72d |  Boss7 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 72d | weatherprod | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,454 | +$36 +0.2% | 20 |
| 72d | carboyant | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,840 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 72d | dafei888 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,377 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 72d | dafei888 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,611 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 72d | suifeng668 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,648 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
dz1ft700 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 31 12:00 PM ET to August 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 180-199 means the market gives it about 100%.